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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: F Robert Simms who wrote (579)	5/3/1999 9:50:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2103

Hi Robert; Well Msft and Wcom were headed south before Buffets comments, & well if they move south much more momentum sets in as people have to start selling stuff to get off margin. If you looked at the right hand side of that post at the Market Cap you will see just how much power these 5 stocks have on the NDX , or qqq Monday, May 3 1999 1:32PM ET Reply # of 579 Hi Jaime; The top players in the NDX still look weak. Symbol Last Trade Chg Value Change Volume Mkt Cap Notes Symbol ^NDX 1:28PM 2118.95 -17.44 -$0.00 -0.82% N/A N/A - ^NDX MSFT 1:13PM 79 1/2 -1 13/16 -$7.09 -2.23% 18,597,900 341.4B - MSFT INTC 1:13PM 62 3/8 +1 3/16 $3.10 +1.94% 8,900,500 207.4B - INTC WCOM 1:13PM 83 11/16 +1 1/2 $2.22 +1.83% 6,274,300 154.9B - WCOM CSCO 1:13PM 112 9/16 -1 1/2 -$1.92 -1.32% 6,898,400 179.8B - CSCO DELL 1:13PM 41 5/16 +1/8 $0.26 +0.30% 10,995,900 104.8B - DELL ---------------------- If msft & wcom can't make a rally soon and 1 more of the 5 joins them, then some real selling could start. It's a Mo Mo market ( margined to the hilt ) quicken.excite.com If you look at a 3 mo chart you'll see DELL is also below the NDX, but has gained some back , still when these big ones go south it put's pressure on margins. If you were in the NDX the way it's weighted 40% of your money would be in thoes 5 , and 29% would be in the 3 below the index , since march. while the rest are up enough taht your 5% ahead , the question is now do you wait and see if the losers come back or start trying to get out, or at least off margin. Do you sell the losers or what, if you sell msft now and it's still a tad ahead you can unwind that OK , but it's going to be a close shave if the group goes down 5% more your subject to take a big bath, as the more you try to get off margin the faster they drop and the more you have to sell. ------------- Well tath may not apply to you , at least directly, however you can bet there are a lot of people asking themself those questions and what they do will effect you dream. ---------------------- No way I'd go long this QQQ , ( or anything in it ) till msft & wcom start up, and only then if INTC , Dell, & csco at least hold their levels. This don't look good , and what Buffey said may not have a lot to do with it. quicken.excite.com the Nasdaq should not be on top of the qqq in that chart and to much money is in msft and wcom on margin not to start creating selling presure if they drop much more. Looking at the Nuts today that may be what's going on now.. as they don't have the float and managers know they are hard to exit. Room for 5% more down side before a panic hits , if that happens God help any one caught long you won't be able to get on line or your broker to answer the phone. It could fix itself but watch them top 5, as 40% of the money is in them, the top 10 have 50% and the top 20 have 62%, the other 80 are jerked along for the ride when 62% of the money is socked into the top 20 of the index. Jim PS the NDX future buyers lost their arse this morning, while the futures were almost maxed out to the upside and that should have sent the NDX on a wild ride up..something didn't follow through.