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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stormweaver who wrote (16126)	5/3/1999 7:22:00 PM
From: Eric.sun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

James, Now we are speaking the same language in the stock market(making money after all!). I think SUNW market cap is only 1/4 of CSCO while the rev is about the same or a little bigger than CSCO. And these two guys at the present time are the primary internet enabler. One would assume SUNW would have similar market cap with CSCO, well due to the fact W2K or linux concern you have been mentioning, maybe SUNW should not be in the same ball park as CSCO. But how far off? say 50 percent would be sufficient. That translates to 100B cap for SUNW which means double in conservative term. So long term vise, SUNW should be at least worth more than $100. Disagree? From technology point of view, hardware front SUNW primary competitor is INTC IMHO, it is not HWP or IBM. INTC and SUNW are the last two major microproceesor developers remaining in the semiconductor industry, in my view as a chip designer over 10 years, INTC and SUNW both have different advantages over each other. For INTC, since it owns its own fab and has the tradition to drive every designer crazy to make chip smaller, faster and cheaper, it always win in high volume commercial products like x86. For SUNW, since it really understands the system and software(because it has Bill Joy who by his own can design both RISC processor and Solaris OS), SUNW can come up processor with better functionality, more scalable and reliable while the yield of SUNW CPU are always bad. I think in INTC, the yield is more than 80 percent and in SUNW it is less than 20 percent for the production. But both of them make money out of it, why? Intel owns the low end PC market(it needs good yield otherwise end up like AMD) and SUN owns the high end(Server and Workstation). Now here comes the internet, the landscape is kind of change. In the old world, hardware guys were driven by the so_called Moore's law which says the hardware porfermance doubles every 18 months in the same or less cost. Today, the internet traffic is double every 6 to 9 months. And guess what, eventually the Moore's Law can't keep up with the internet explosion. And all of the sudden, the scalability and reliability becomes the more important issue than the yield of semiconductor chips. From this what I am getting at is SUN has the upper hand compete with INTC in the internet age. But of cause everything comes down to execution, history tells us INTC is the best executed company once its vision falls into the future industry trend and SUN has the bright idea and can't execute it. That is why wintel were so successful, right? But now is the internet age, competition is so intense that INTC probably doesn't figure out how to compete yet while SUN is already in implementation phase, and this time around you better bet on Scott knows better than anybody that he needs to execute now or never. Here goes my 2 cents. Hope you enjoy it. Eric