To: steve susko who wrote (26008 ) 5/4/1999 3:36:00 AM From: IQBAL LATIF Read Replies (2) | Respond to
Steve - I think a second close above 11000 will lead us higher to my upper band, looking at the past performance of NDX COMP they follow DOW moves, if we have this SPM taking out 1362 today we may see that Comp NDX even DOT rallying from the lower supports, look at AMZN EBAY AOL they are all sitting at supports, if we need a trading buy we can see some opportunities in these particular stocks. I think 1378 is the main resistance, DOW DTX BKX RUT rallied together to take out the 11000 hurdle, however these sectors tend to move in opposite direction to most speculative internet money, you would see that every time DOW BKX has made a run in last few weeks internets have sold and vice versa, now what I am trying to hint is that I can see two possibilites one we will rally from DOT 625 support and DOT NDX COMP all will try to attempt the old high this is most likely if we need to hit the high of DOW 11400, the other possibility is that we break DOT 625 to move towards 550 support, comp takes out 2500 and NDX breaks 2100, no way SPM can stay above 1355, we will see a sharp retracement to 1318 area and even to 1292, it will be again at 1292 where future market direction would be decided, we can move down to 1230 if we get some conflicting report on strength of economy or move up from 1292 taking strength after validiting that support. If you look at RUT BKX these two indexes will show you a band of consoildation where as DOW and DTX are in break out, on the other hand NDX COMP DOT are sititng at interim supports of 2100 2500 and 625 they did pull back sharply just last week and than bounced of 50 days rather little lower to get a little ahead of themselves, now we are at interesting point, my experience tells me we will take cue from DOW and the little lethargy we have in the leaders will soon be over taken by some bouyancy, I will not like to long at supports of DOT NDX COMP if BKX RUT DTX start breaking, I see a possibility that all sectors may move forward to test that old highs on BKX NDX COMP and 725 on DOT, it will be at those levels where we will be seeing DOW at 11400 level, so keep an eye on 1378 and 1355, a break of 1355 should lead you to lighten up, I am to be honest have no emotions left in the market, I am runing sizeable positions with out of money calls but trade every break of support. I have no way to tell you that market is about to break as marekt's most volatile sectors are sitting at important supports, until these supports give away no way to short the market, yes if 2500 and 625 gives away even on one clsoing basis, next morning after forty five minutes from opening sell SPM calls and buy puts. Right now I will be loking to climb the bandwagon whichever side it will move, my bias looking at it from my experience is that we will hold supports as individual stocks and indexes tell me that 625 may hold so would 2500 on comp and once we have some movement in htese sectors we will be on the road towards new highs in search of most difficult returns but market skepticism is at such a high loevel that we can see a big move to old highs on all indexes before we withdraw. My strategy is clear and I will accordingly make my bets I plan to go into internets if 645 is taken out on the way up and 2575 on comp is taken out, otherwise I will wait and on break of 2500 625 short the SPm and DOT.. Look at my yesterday post for levels.. no emotions no love for the direction right now I am completely in a trading mode and I think that is the way, keep your money in the market very little and the strocks you want to own replace them by out of monies calls, the next 5-10% move should be on back of derivatives and not actual ownership of stocks that distinguishes a trader from an investor..
