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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: charger who wrote (1452)	5/3/1999 7:47:00 PM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Top tick city: "Goldman Sachs Prices Offering At $53 a Share for Sale Tuesday An INTERACTIVE JOURNAL News Roundup Goldman, Sachs & Co. on Monday priced shares in its long-awaited initial public offering at $53 apiece, saying it would sell 69 million shares Tuesday to accommodate intense demand. The offering, for 12.8% of the firm, will raise about $3.66 billion, ranking it as the second largest domestic IPO ever behind Conoco Inc.'s $4 billion deal in October. The shares will trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "GS." The price is toward the high end of the range Goldman had been considering. In April Goldman increased the price range for the offering, reacting to a white-hot stock market and the share activity of other securities firms. The firm said last it would offer 60 million shares at $45 to $55 a share. The 69 million to go on sale Tuesday includes nine million that were at the ready if demand warranted. Since the firm formally unveiled its IPO plans on March 16, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has surged 11%. Goldman Sachs's top four executives will receive one of the biggest-ever paydays on Wall Street when the firm's shares are sold. The four officers -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Henry Paulson, Vice Chairman Robert Hurst, and John A. Thain and John L. Thornton, both presidents and co-chief operating officers -- will receive shares worth a total of roughly $740 million. The sale will end a long and frequently agonizing journey for Goldman that has caused internal squabbles among the firm's partners -- all of whom will gain millions in the offering -- as well as the ouster of former Chief Executive Jon S. Corzine. The offering will be the second time Goldman has attempted to sell shares to the public. In September, the firm pulled a planned IPO amid volatility in the market and big trading losses."

To: charger who wrote (1452)	5/3/1999 9:04:00 PM
From: Dave Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

charger, your statement that the bubble has popped and air is leaking badly raises an interesting question. Exactly how do we define a popping of the bubble? Personally, I would not consider the recent action as a popping of the bubble. Yahoo and Amazon and others have had larger percentage decreases than recently experienced. To pick a winner to such a contest do we not need some parameters? Say a 30% drop in one day? Or a 50% drop in one week? Or a new 52 week low? Any other ideas out there? Back to my guess. I think we'll see a drop such as indicated above when Yahoo (the leader of the portals) announces their 4th quarter earnings for 1999. With 4th quarter '99 earnings being marginally better than 4th quarter '98 I believe the stock will get killed along with many other of the internets. Let's see, this year 4th quarter earnings for 1998 were reported on Tuesday, January 12th. In 2000, I'll assume they'll be announced the same Tuesday, January 11th. My guess, best of luck all.