Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Jimbo's Playhouse/CPQ -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenya AA who wrote (906)	5/4/1999 1:58:00 AM
From: Aitch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12663

Hi K and the rest of you MBK's... Been travelling around the Gulf, returned to see nothing really changed with CPQ and MSFT went down... I'm hoping, (note the lack of anything related to intelligent DD or analysis... just plain holding thumbs), hoping that the pull back / correction on the DOW does not occur, as I, unlike NW, do not have any spare cash at the moment to take advantage of it. Thoughts on MSFT decline? All I can see in the news at the moment is the renewed interest in the antitrust case. On a lighter note, I fulfilled a lifelong dream the other day, (using some trading profit from CPQ from a few months ago)... I got me a HOG! The kind you ride on, not the stock <g> So, drinks are on me. I know it's late and the time zones are wrong, so the offer stands for 24 hours. I'll just drink all day and night... H

To: Kenya AA who wrote (906)	5/4/1999 2:40:00 AM
From: Aitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12663

While mulling over the various beverages I am sure I will be buying shortly, here is an interesting article: Corporate Buyers' Survey 08:27am EDT 30-Apr-99 Merrill Lynch (S.Milunovich) Fundamental Highlights: o We expect one-third of users will slow IT spending in the second half but less than 20% will lockdown in 4Q. PC spending should be slightly aided by Y2K. o Internet spending is in its infancy, but users expect the Internet to benefit computing demand. We believe IBM, Microsoft, and Sun are best positioned as Internet vendors. o CIOs think the Sun/AOL alliance should result in a successful e-commerce solution. Sun is gaining share at customer sites. o IBM is looking good. Almost 70% expect IBM to be a leader in Internet computing, account momentum is strong, and users are buying more software. o HP and Compaq are lagging with less customer momentum. Compaq still has the opportunity to be recognized as an enterprise computing company though. Questions And Answers Y2K Spending Will you lockdown spending in the fourth quarter, that is, spend very little on IT products? Yes 16% No 80 Unsure 4 Will second half spending slow a lot, a little, or not at all? A lot 7% A little 27 Not at all 60 Don't know 6 Y2K should slow but not stop second-half spending. To say there will be no impact is illogical, but we don't see nuclear winter either. Less than 20% said they will lockdown, which is reasonably bullish, and only 7% said spending would slow a lot. Most vendors have remained sanguine, from BMC to EMC to IBM. Will you spend more, the same, or less on PCs than you would otherwise? More 33% Same 45 Less 22 Y2K should be modestly positive for PC spending this year. Dell and Compaq seem to be backing off the view that Y2K will accelerate PC spending, taking a more neutral stance. Certainly 1Q didn't benefit as hoped. Most corporations are on a three-year upgrade cycle that Y2K hasn't dramatically affected. Which investments do you feel the need to keep making? ERP (ironically), networking, and hardware were mentioned most frequently. Other responses included: "Whatever it takes to do business" "Web-enabled applications" "Upgrades, maintenance and training" Internet What percent of your IT budget is spent on Internet-related activities? Average: 5% How about in two years? Average: 12% Spending on Internet related infrastructure appears modest currently but could better than double as a percent of the IT budget in a couple years. The numbers seem low, but remember that people and maintenance costs are large portions of IT budgets. We have argued that the Internet computing trend is in its infancy, which augers well for our infrastructure plays. How is your company using Internet-related technologies? 1. Intranet/internal communications 2. Customer communications 3. Information resource 4. Business-to-business commerce Rank which vendors you think are best positioned to help your Internet computing needs. 1. None 2. IBM 3. Microsoft 4. Sun Microsystems 5. Hewlett-Packard Nearly 30% of respondents cited no vendor as best positioned, which indicates that Internet computing remains an open game. IBM and Microsoft were ahead of the rest by a better than 2-to-1 margin. IBM was praised for its end-to-end solutions while Microsoft captured significant mindshare with its browser. We think 1Q results showed that IBM is getting a tangible benefit from the Internet. On a scale of 1-10, how important is the Internet to your company's top management? Average: 6.5 We're seeing the rating move up over time though there's still room for further recognition. Few industries won't be impacted as highlighted by the Merrill Lynch report "E-commerce: Virtually Here." Not everyone gets it. One CIO said his boss gets upset if they can't get their baseball games in the Net. Do you think the Internet will drive computer demand the next few years? Yes 84% No 6 Not sure 10 Vendor Momentum Do you think the AOL/Sun/Netscape combination will provide a successful e- commerce solution? Yes 47% No 16 Possibly 37 Is Sun gaining or losing momentum at your account? Gaining 31% Losing 8 No change 61 Users give the alliance the benefit of the doubt "if they can avoid killing each other" as one CIO put it. Sun/AOL hopes to be one of a few end-to-end e- commerce solutions. Sun is gaining share thanks to its Internet aura and improved enterprise product line. The AOL linkup gives Sun more boardroom visibility. Do you believe that IBM will be a leader in Internet computing? Yes 68% No 14 Possibly 18 Is IBM gaining or losing momentum in your account? Gaining 43% Losing 8 No change 49 Are you buying more or less of IBM software? More 23% Less 10 Stable 50 Do not use 17 IBM is looking good. The e-business ad campaign is starting to turn into business. IBM is a trusted name and has increasing experience helping companies get on the Internet. IBM appears to be gaining user recognition as fast as Sun. This perceptual shift regarding how customers view IBM has been consistently in our surveys the past four years. Also note the interest in IBM software, especially middleware such as DB2 and MQ Series messaging. Users mentioned that IBM was weakest in PCs. Do you think HP will be a key provider of Internet technologies? Yes 20% No 49 Don't know 31 Is HP gaining or losing momentum at your account in computers? Gaining 25% Losing 29 No change 46 On the other hand, HP has a lot of work to do. It doesn't have the Internet aura; it's not clear how much the e-services ads will help since they're a bit me-too. Momentum with customers has slowed as well-one person said "you mean they do something other than printers?" Is Compaq gaining or losing momentum at your account? Gaining 31% Losing 33 No change 36 Is Compaq successfully becoming an enterprise player? Yes 41% No 37 Possibly 22 Which will be more successful? 41% Compaq moving into enterprise computing by acquisition 47% Dell's virtual approach of partnering with product and services companies Compaq's results are similar to HP's. Account momentum has stalled. Yet many think Compaq has a shot at being an enterprise player. We think the company needs to better articulate its differentiation. We prefer Dell's move into the enterprise through partnering. Information over infrastructure, as Michael Dell would stay. Still, there may be limitations to Dell's approach, which Compaq should be pointing out.

To: Kenya AA who wrote (906)	5/4/1999 11:27:00 AM
From: Night Writer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12663

K, Take it easy is right. I think the definitions of a pullback and correction may be changed in the future with the DOW at 11,000. 10% or up to 1,100 points for a pullback, and 20% or up to 2,200 points for a correction may be a little too high. I would almost bet the new definitions will be 5% or 550 points for a pullback, and 10% or 1,100 for a correction. DOW 9,500 in a day or two would be called a crash. Now I'm tying to remember the market stops. Forget it. I think I'll just go back to bottom feeding. NW