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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger W. Bowen who wrote (29125)	5/4/1999 2:55:00 AM
From: JGoren	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

CNN announced that Qualcomm was the best performing stock on NASDAQ during the month of April.

To: Roger W. Bowen who wrote (29125)	5/4/1999 3:21:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Roger, am beginning to wonder how one establishes a reasonable valuation for this company. One very basic measurement is to compare the stock's PE with the estimated earnings growth rate. Because the fundamentals have changed so much in recent weeks, I am using a very basic way of looking at the numbers that maks no pretense of being fine-tuned. We know that the earnings run rate once the infrastructure business is thrown off is $4.80. With a slight quarter-to-quarter increase it's easy to arrive at a $5.00 EPS this year. Add 40% to that next year and you've got $7.00 next year. Add another 40% add you've got almost $10.00 two years from now. If the stock sells at a PE two years from now that is conservatively 25% less than the growth rate, the PE will be 30. Multiply that by the $10.00 estimated earnings and you've got a stock priced at $300 two years from now. Taking a less conservative approach, if the stock sells at a PE that is equal to the growth rate the multiple would be 40 and the stock price would be $400 two years from now. Play with the numbers using any combination of variables you want. You'll likely arrive at a range of expected stock prices that tells you the stock will probably do very well. The moral of the story is that the stock's future should be looked at independently of the past. And that's just the next two years. If everything goes as I expect you'll go through a similar exercise two years from now after an even larger run-up and probably decide at that point in time that there is still no reason to sell the stock. This one has all the makings of a long-term keeper. --Mike Buckley

To: Roger W. Bowen who wrote (29125)	5/4/1999 3:26:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

could we get into a discussion as to 'reasonable valuations' for the Q Start off my remembering that one man's "investment" is another man's "speculation". The stock is worth what people are willing to pay for it, no more, no less. So all the numbers you can read are really just justifications for buying or selling. You will have to do your best guess, like the rest of us! With that said, go to the "Mike Buckley" profile and read his posts on Qualcomm in the Q thread and the G&K thread. Others will give you other people to check for "DD". Read the "George Gilder" archives on Q for the story and the tech background. I believe that this stock is going to sell for at least 80 times projected next years earnings. That means it should go to between 320, at $4, to 560, at $7. I would take a major change in the story for me to sell any Q in the next 5 years. LindyBill