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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (12799)	5/4/1999 10:22:00 AM
From: dennis michael patterson	Respond to of 99985

Ord Oracle: BOTTOM LINE ON THE MARKET. May 3, 1999 On the sidelines for the moment. For Monitoring Purposes; Short SPX close 4/29/99 at 1342.83. Long XAU on close 4/22/99 at 68.41. We have "800" and "900" number for intraday updates. The "900" is 1-900-933-6733 $2.25 a min.; 1-4 min. in length; age 18 and older. The "800" is the same message but cost $2.00 a min. and billed to a credit card. Call for sign up. We up-date every market hour on the 1/2 hour. Question? call (402) 486-0362. WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. We don't want to sound like a broken record, but we will anyhow, It appears the June S&P's is drawing a bearish "Three Drives to a Top" pattern and the third top is in development now. The first top of the "Three Drives to a Top" pattern developed on March 19, the second top appeared on April 12. An ideal time for the third top to be completed is from May 3 to May 6. The Fibonacci relationships are bearish. When a market retraces 61.8% or more of a previous rally the market is in the process of making a top. From the March 3 low to the March 19 high the June S&P's retraced 61.8% of the rally to the March 24 low. From the March 24 low to the April 12 high the June S&P's retraced near 75% of that rally down to the April 19 low. From the April 19 low to the April 27 high the June S&P's pulled back over a 61.8% retracement into Friday's low. Therefore the Fibonacci relationships are bearish on the June S&P's. The McClellan Oscillator closed at 124 today, implying the up-trend is intact for short term. The tick index readings did reach +600 today, which is a bearish sign. In candlestick charting a little longer-term pattern was drawn which foretells a significant decline is coming called a "Three Black Crows". The "Three Black Crows" is not a trigger for a short, but only warns that a significant decline is coming. The ARMS Index closed today at .52. Closing readings on the ARMS Index near .50 imply the market will make a short term top the next business day or the day after. We would like to see the June S&P's hit a new high around 1384 on lighter volume on the NYSE that the previous high to really generate a bearish signal. A bearish candlestick pattern should appear at this next high to signal the top. Once a short-term signal is triggered our first downside target will be the 1230 area on the June S&P's. No clear short term signal yet.