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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (6194)	5/4/1999 11:44:00 AM
From: synchro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17183

For all the talk by everyone (myself included), I think the potential upside earnings surprise is less likely in the near term. The price, whether it 95 or 120, has already priced in a 30% revenue growth and 30% profit growth they forecasted this year. The only way to be for sure is wait until 2nd quarter earnings come out, and see if anything changed. This whole HP thing by itself in sales $$ terms may be insigniciant, and they may very well indeed make it up with growth elsewhere to hit the 30%/30% annual revenue/profit growth target. But the question is: why is HP doing this if its relationship with EMC is totally satisfactory? Is it because HP wants to break into Japan's storage biz and EMC doesn't have the expertise in Japan? If that's the case, maybe there's nothing to worry about. Or is there something in the business relationship with EMC that HP finds unsatisfactory? If that is the case, are there other EMC clients out there that may have similar feelings as HP about EMC? If so, it's a bigger problem than what has been in the news so far. As dominant as EMC is, I think EMC is not Microsoft or pre-1997 Intel. So IMO it is simplistic to just dismiss this latest hoopla as "insignicant". My point is we simply don't know. I doubt EMC's CEO knows 100% either _today_. As he finds out more, I am sure he will adjust and, if he's smart, makes HP happy again. Last I checked, HP, for all its problems in PC and workstation markets, is no two-bit tech company. For you folks out there who averaged down today, you may indeed come out OK on a technical rebound. Just keep in mind that you are not investing based on facts. You are taking a gamble w/o solid information.