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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (6214)	5/4/1999 2:49:00 PM
From: mauser96	Respond to of 17183

Thanks. There is usually a disconnect between a company and it's stock. The WSJ had a chart of earnings surprises by sectors recently, and almost all the positive earnings surprises were non tech cylical and commodity companies. The fastest way to make money in the market is with an expansion of P/E ratios, and that's what is happening in companies like Alcoa. If I was a trader and had the slightest idea about the aluminum business I would be buying that too. Tech stocks are also highly interest rate sensitive, probably not so much because it effects them directly, but because rising interest rates can come from increased demand for money from companies like Alcoa. This happens only if the business cycle is perceived to be turning up, and therefore companies like Alcoa become more likely to beat expectations than companies like EMC. Although it seems to me that tech companies should also benefit from improving world wide conditions, but perhaps not as much as commodity producers(at least this is the perception.) Facts mean nothing in the stock market, perceptions and expectations mean everything, at least in the short run. So while I am bullish on the company, I'm far less bullish on the stock. However, I'm an investor, not a trader , and at today's semi reasonable price levels, I'm willing to bet that EMC will be a better holding than Alcoa 2 to 5 years from now.