To: zuma_rk who wrote (5298 ) 5/4/1999 10:06:00 PM From: TLindt Respond to of 20297
>>>* If CKFR were to appreciate 10 times current market cap, the company would be worth $25b which is about $305b less than msft and about 8% of AT&T. I guesstimate that the probability of that happening is better than the probability of CKFR retreating and losing 50% of its value in 5 years. CheckFree could easily trade 5 times based on expectations IMO without a doubt...and for that matter...trading internet stocks is like trying to catch a fart in a glass jar. I've seen a lot of folks go broke shorting some, even though I agree with their thesis. Then Buffet is right when he said about Coke, 16 Billion servings of an 8oz beverage will be served up on any give day, and 1 Billion will be Coke...He understands that...and invests into that. But would he have done the same thing, when Coke was new? Or would he have said, "why would somebody want to pay for a Coke drink when water was free, just for flavor?" Warren needs something simple to understand, once he understands it he invests in it. Water & Coke are what then, drinks? Why do we drink? Because if we don't we die..... Bills are like water....we can't live without them. We got them, all of us. They are the water of our life...every blessed thing we have, or ever will have is tied to a bill, like water, they eat into our paychecks...just like we drink to survive. Dealing with them on paper costs time, money and is very inefficent. vs. push the damm button . Warren wouldn't have jumped on Coke at the turn of this century, because water was free, and why would somebody want to pay extree for flavor? So turn it around, If E-Bill were available in 1900 for free, why would somebody want to pay extra for buying envelopes, stamps and sending the bill in the mail? Oh how Chic! Absolutely Stupid...you have to look back at what wise men say, and advance their logic foward/back to understand our future. He's a simple guy without a vision, but he understands the the here and now. One Hundred months or years from now bills will be paid with a click, then it will make perfect sense to him...IMO. But not now...he's on the Coke...which is back-ass-wards.