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Strategies & Market Trends : lexington troika dialog russia fund -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kirk Vanden who wrote (88)5/5/1999 9:25:00 AM
From: Jim Fraser  Respond to of 92
 
I'm still here. This baby has a looooooooong road ahead. Oil prices are what has helped out this year. Thanks for the link, I will check it out.



To: Kirk Vanden who wrote (88)7/13/1999 9:11:00 PM
From: Kirk Vanden  Respond to of 92
 
There is a nice one page article/profile of the
Lexington Troika Dialog Fund on page 44 of the
August issue of SmartMoney.

Kirk



To: Kirk Vanden who wrote (88)1/3/2000 1:59:00 AM
From: Gerald R. Lampton  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 92
 
Anyone else still in the Lexington Troika Dialog Russia Fund?

I am! In this fund, timing is everything, and, I can say that, for me at least it's been so far, so good. However, it's hard to say what the future holds. It's also very hard to get a solid handle on what is really going on in Russia.

I have found somewhat helpful Russia Today ( russiatoday.com ), with which I'm sure everyone here is familiar. They provide good current events coverage from various sources, but the depth of analysis is not really there. I also get the impression they are pro-government.

Then there's Stratfor ( stratfor.com ), which recently did an analysis of Russia's projected course of over the next ten years ( stratfor.com ) as well as of Yeltsin's resignation ( stratfor.com ). Stratfor seems pretty dead on when it comes to calling the geopolitical scene and the importance of Putin. However, what I find missing is any in depth analysis of the economic program and investment ramifications. Stratfor also seems unduly pessimistic, but that's just my hunch.

Finally, I came across this little document posted by the government of the Russian Federation, setting out in as clear a form as I've seen anywhere Putin's stated policy objectives for the economy:
pravitelstvo.gov.ru
In it, Putin seems to say some nice things, to which I'm sure the market will continue to respond positively. Still, he is talking out of both sides of his mouth, and assuming it is not totally propaganda to begin with, it's hard to get a really solid fix on what he will do.

One article I came across does have some interesting quotes from the manager of LETRX ( cbs.marketwatch.com ), but its hard to say whether he's right or just being optimistic.

The sense that I am getting is that Russia is becoming more nationalistic, less pro-American, but that Russia needs investment in order to aid capital formation, meaning that it still has no choice but to proceed with market reforms.

I also have found it helpful from time to time, especially during the musical premiers phase last year and earlier this year, to focus on the investment itself, ignoring the political situation and rhetoric entirely.

Over the long term, I see the opportunity to make a lot of money in this fund if things go right, which they seem to be at present. But it's hard to tell, since, although Putin says the right things about wanting to go in a market-oriented, pro-reform direction, Stratfor says market liberalism has failed and has already been discarded. My own impression is that it hasn't yet been tried because Yeltsin was incompetent and the Communists in the Duma have blocked everything he's tried to do of a positive nature.

Nearer term, I see this fund continuing to rally through the end of March, with a correction in the summer as unpleasant realities, both Chechen and domestic, set in.

All of this is just IMHO, naturally.

I would be grateful if anyone could give me some good sources of information to help me follow this very interesting and volatile situation, as well as their views on the short- and long-term future of this investment.