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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (43948)	5/5/1999 7:34:00 AM
From: Otimer	Respond to of 95453

Sometime ago there was a site posted on this thread for live quotes for oil futures.Does anyone know of it?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (43948)	5/5/1999 9:16:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

< Qatar is cheating (again).> shhhh - that's supposed to be a ''June'' story ! Interesting dynamic working here - with more than a little history to draw upon, enabling us to determine the risk vs. reward odds of OPEC cheating - logically vs. emotionally. Too far - too fast; is no longer even open for debate. Everyone from Yammani, to the Crude Futures Traders, to Brokerage Analysts, to the Oil majors themselves; have all commented on the fact that the incentive to keep quotas has been virtually eliminated overnight. The ''Sustainability'' question is entirely related to OPEC cheating ! While no one seriously doubts that even moderate compliance, coupled with under estimated Global demand, (primarially f/Asia) will continue to draw down upon supply and guarantee a floor of perhaps $14 Oil; the ''story'' here is how the markets will react to less than expected compliance and the resulting potential drop in Oil prices to what mere months ago would have been good news; ie: a $14-$16 trading range that is both expected by, and budgeted for, by the Oil majors. If they cheated @ $14 Crude - what will they do @ $18+ ? Remember; initial reports show only 50% of the OPEC members being ''on the record'' - as to having 80-90% compliance. Are the other 50% going to surprise to the up, or the down-side ? - and the story is not this initial period, but rather June, July - and the fact that the Institutions will have the info well before we ever see, or hear it... If OPEC cheats; Investors are truly going to have to be able to beat the Elephants out the door and they get a head start ! How will the OSX stocks react to "cheating'' and any softening of Oil prices ? How long will the Institutions that are sitting on a ''year maker'' one month 50% profit run here - wait, before locking in those gains ? Are you willing to ''bet'' on OPEC here ? Are you willing to let your 50% one month profit - ''ride'' on OPEC compliance, given their track record and the incentive to cheat ? Who is ''really'' - GAMBLING here; the profit takers, or those who will just hold ? ....Taking ''some'' profits and doing ''some'' rotation into the non OPEC-affected US Nat Gas E&P's seems prudent risk/money management imho. This seems especially so, given that the E&P's have have had a superior run here, have equal, or greater momenteum and remaining upside; and unquestionably have more nearterm earnings & cash flow upside.... read - ''No - Brainer'' ! Initial compliance due to be reported May 10th(?), will be acceptable - headfake Rally anyone ? - are you willing to ''gamble'' on OPEC and ''bet'' that the Street doesn't sell into the initial ''good news'' ? Not much left - ''event-wise'' to keep the good news side flowing here untill the next earnings reporting period... These time-gaps without a continuation of Good -News has generally be met with less than solid performance. The last thing the OSX stocks can endure here - is a good news vacumn.... We may get a nice little ''pop'' here off of API #'s - through the actual release of the OPEC compliance report; the $64 question will be - is this going to be a ''head-fake'' rally and THE - ''sell into good news'' correction ? Does anyone ''logically'' not think that we are due for a retracement here ? Again; when we break under 320-325 M boe in storage and have 135+ (trending toward 150) GOM rigs at work - load the boat with OSX stocks - untill then ROTATE ! - use logic and not emotion...and take ''some'' profits ! ...food for thought

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (43948)	5/5/1999 9:17:00 AM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

fwiw dep't--Barry Rosen writes a daily market letter called Fortucast Market Timers....his latest comment on crude is.."...longer term cycles suggest a May high, an August low and then higher prices into November. The August low should hold 14.85 and the Nov high should go to at least 27.70..." EW wise, we have done, or are very close to, 5 waves up, suggesting a retrace. That retrace would be Wave 2, and the higher high Mr Rosen talks about would be wave 3....As I said, fwiw