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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daniel Joo who wrote (12946)	5/5/1999 1:53:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Daniel, it is true that the divergence is ominous. i have turned more cautious recently because of this, especially in view of the fact that the volume in OEX options was not big. the excessive speculation in individual equity calls has abated a bit in the past three sessions though; i guess many people got burned in the tech sell-off. bernie shaeffer is currently more sanguine about the market than i am. he's got some statistics that show that when the OEX put/call ratio rises while the market goes up it is usually a very bullish sign. but i agree with you that this is mostly institutional hedging since the market is so stretched. still, maybe it's all just a prelude to a real blow-off. regards, hb