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To: Lee who wrote (122501)	5/5/1999 3:31:00 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 176387

Lee- I think you would agree with me that most gvt. data looks in the rear-view mirror... While true reports for activity (business, consumer) indicated strong growth for March, April and 1st quarter...this is not necessarily an indication of what lies ahead... I believe in the "speed up" theory of Fed rate cuts...that it no longer take 6-9 months for rates to work their way into the system...that the effects are much more immediate....I think we saw it's major effects from Nov-April...going forward now we will see less effect... Although some world markets have bottomed, there are not many showing strong recoveries....u shape, not v shape rebounds...so we are still in the bottom of the u for most...that will not mean much strong demand for commodities in the near-term... Just read where Germany unemployment is not budging, and the gvt., due to huge debt overhang, is powerless to spur growth...Rest of Europe lame....maybe a little growth in 2nd half of year... I believe that we will see a continued slowdown in U.S. GDP (from 6.0 4Q, to 4.5 1Q, to 3.0+ and even maybe high 2's for the next couple quarters)...Will there be a "conservative" effect in 4Q due to Y2K....affecting overall demand in U.S., world? Regardless, I think the consumer (housing, retail) will pull back the next few months (not dramatically, but some nonetheless), and overall exports will continue weak...I think the bond is still range bond, and that the upper limits are now being tested again... All IMO... I also continue to believe that inflation is well in check...Oil will fall some in the coming weeks, we'll see some decline in commodities that have popped up recently..(although they will remain higher than October lows)...the internet will continue to drive an unprecedented lowering of consumer, business cost (and price) reductions... Once this becomes clear (and a couple more cyclical companies come out and tell us that earnings, after all, are not going to be all that hot), our beloved tech friends we'll come back en vogue.. Could be a a couple weeks, a month, could be 2/3 months...but when it happens, the psychological turn will be swift indeed...Alcoa.com will feel the pain... If I'm right, I hope we both remember this prediction... Hey, what happened to Maddux last night? Looks like McGwire ate Greg's Wheaties before the game!