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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teflon who wrote (22197)	5/5/1999 6:13:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Respond to of 74651

Teflon - I stayed up very late last night looking through the last two weeks of trading in MSFT (yes, I do print out the LII and T&S info every day - ouch), and in general working on my TA model. It indicated that MSFT was short term oversold, and due for a relief rally on Thursday. Armed with that, and waiting for the inflation info, I was ready to go in big into the market (I've been all in cash, except my long term portfolio). I decided to buy NITE and SFE on the dip (when NITE broke 120, and SFE - which I had been eyeing for awhile, thanks to you - broke 70). When the inflation news hit, it was a signal in my view, that the market will go up. The reason was, that yesterday the market was already trending up, and collapsed only because of the bond yield news - and inflation concerns (FED might raise rates etc.). Once the concern about rates was removed, the market, which was now oversold, would snap back. MSFT has been under such selling pressure, even today, that pretty late in the day, it would still dip below 77 - giving me a chance to buy 2K at 76 7/8. Tomorrow seems pretty clearly will be an up day, especially that nasdaq has been short-term oversold, with a lot of big cap tech leaders, and high p/e issues taken down fairly significantly. I'm not sure about Friday - I feel that perhaps a lot of the "profit taking" is not over yet. A lot will depend on what Greenspan says in his speech tomorrow. Friday will be volatile, because there will be selling pressure (on account of this being Friday, and a lot of traders don't like to hold over weekends). Tomorrow however, I expect bargain hunters to push us higher. For next week, my crystal ball is a bit cloudy :) - I will be cautious. Traditionally, May/June are not great months for stocks, and charts would tend to be bearish here. Probably more a "stock picker's" market, with select issues doing well. Sadly, I am not optimistic about MSFT the next few months... of course, if they come up with some dramatic announcement, or the AOL/Netscape thing pushes the perception of the trial in MSFT's direction... we could zoom! Morgan PS I feel pretty good about my SFE purchase today at 68, and I'll hold on for the rest of the year (though, I can't resist - I have a mental stop at 58 - ouch). I may trade it - though I know I really should rein in my trading instincts. Same with a good chunk of NITE - I'll hold.