Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (7608)	5/5/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Report: 5/05/99 The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are encouraged and appreciated. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ PFE Stats (5/05/99): PFE reverses after hitting the target Peabody Valley on the nose PFE Versus the Dow- Intraday quicken.com DOW JONES: Close: 10,955 +69 Reverses after 100 point am drop PFE - PFIZER INC Last Price: 118 5/16 at 16:20 Closes at High Change: Up 4 3/8 (+3.84%) High: 118 5/16 at 16:02 Low: 113 3/8 at 10:43 The exact target Peabody Valley! Open: 114 1/4 Previous Close: 113 15/16 on 5/4 Volume: 4,398,500 Moderate volume 30-Day Avg. Volume: 4,296,000 Shares Outstanding: 1,293,175,000 52-Week High: 150.12 52-Week Low: 86 Beta: 0.93 Yield: 0.70% P/E Ratio: 44.8 EPS: 2.64 Click here for a technical analysis of PFE Trends PFE above 50 day moving average stockconsultant.com _____________ The Peabody Model -Click here for a summary of the principles behind the Peabody Model. Short-Term PFE Trend: Moving Higher to 130s (5/2/99) PFE hit the exact target Peabody Valley as predicted on the 4/28/99 Peabody Report Target Peabody Peak: The new target Peabody Peak is 131.55 (+11.2%) by 6/07/99. The Peabody Peak strike price is 121.02 (+2.3%). Target Peabody Valley: A new pending Peabody Valley of 113.38 was set on 5/5/99. The target Peabody Valley was 113.39. If the model is wrong, PFE can move down to a Peabody Valley of $110.71 (-6.4%).. Predicted PFE Level: At the current record Dow level of 10,995 the predicted PFE price is 159.64..... Accordingly, PFE is 25.9% underpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends. This is a reflection of a major break in the positive relationship among the Dow, PFE and Big Pharma and the current rotation out of growth and Pharma stocks. Da Short-term PForecast (5/02/99) PFE: 116.94 Dow: 11,015: One day does not make a trend.... Accordingly, Tuesday is a big day for short-term PFE. Another strong day will probably push PFE on its way to another Peabody Peak. For long-termers, this has been a wonderful buying opportunity. By July...maybe sooner..., you will be wondering why in the world you did not buy PFE when it was below 120 before the split...The easy answer: it is never easy to buy a stock after a 20%+ decline...But, the fact is PFE is getting stronger every day...this strength will result in superior earnings...which will result in higher PFE prices. Suggested PFE Buying Range: $110 to $117 (4/28/99) The Peabody Portfolio: As PFE hit the Peabody Valley, another 100 shares were added today @114.00 (5/05/99) Peabody Portfolio Summary The Peabody Portfolio consists of 34 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. The Portfolio has purchased 5,000 PFE shares at an average price of $73.52 (only 3.5% off the subsequent PFE Valleys). During the last month, the Portfolio has made 5 purchases of 500 shares at an average price of $118.90. This is the highest number of PFE buys during any given month since the inception of the Model in August 1996. # PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 34 % of purchases in the black: 94% # PFE shares purchased: 5,000 Average PFE purchase price: $73.52 Annualized return: 82.1% Current return: 61.3% # PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 7 % of purchases in the black: 78% # PFE shares purchased: 700 Average PFE purchase price: $117.39 Current return: +0.8% Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200.........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00 7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50 8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00 8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63 8/11/98..........100..........$100.00 9/01/98..........100..........$97.63 10/06/98.........100..........$94.00 10/09/98.........100..........$89.00 10/14/98.........100..........$89.50 01/10/99.........100........$117.00 01/12/99.........100........$110.25 04/15/99..........100........$129.38 04/25/99..........100.........$118.13 04/28/99...........100.........$119.00 05/02/99...........100........$114.00 05/05/99...........100.........114.00 Total:............5,000...........$73.35 Total (1999)......700.........$117.39 ______________________________________________________ Peabody Peaks & Valleys: Updated 5/05/99 Listed below is an updated summary of the Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/04/90. The columns include the following data: - PFE prices - % change since the previous Peabody Valley or Peak - # of days from the last Peabody Valley or Peak - # of high volume days associated with the Peabody Valley or Peak - predicted next Peabody Valley or Peak using the Model - difference between the predicted Peabody price and the actual price . ___________________________________________________ ................................................................................ Predicted .........................................% Chg... # Days..High Vol..Peabody....% Diff ...............................PFE.....Last........Last....Days ....Next Pred..Peabody/ Peak/Valley.. Date...Price...Vall/Pk....Val/Pk. W/ Date...Vall/Pk....Actual 1....Peak.....1/4/90....9.06.................................. 2....... 6.92........1.5% 2....Valley...2/26/90...6.81.....-24.8%..... 53........12......11.31.......19.0% 3....Peak.... 7/31/90...9.50......39.4%.....155.......21........7.31....... -8.7% 4....Valley...8/23/90...8.00.....-15.8%..... 23..........1.......12.61 .....-41.3% 5....Peak.....2/30/91..21.50...168.8%... 494 .........9.......18.07...... 4.9% 6....Valley...2/19/92...17.22...-19.9%......51..........8.......22.76...... 19.2% 7....Peak.....2/27/92...19.10....10.9% .......8 .........2.......15.91...... -6.4% 8...Valley....4/28/92...17.00....-11.0%......61.........3.......22.52....... 8.2% 9....Peak.....8/20/92...20.81.....22.4%....114........4........17.45 .......+0.4% 10..Valley...10/5/92....17.38....-16.5%......46.......10.......22.93.......14.7% 11..Peak.....2/14/92 ...20.00.....15.1%......70........3.......16.72........27.4% 12..Valley....2/22/93 ...13.13 ...-34.4%..... 70 .....33.......18.25 ......14.5% 13..Peak.....3/11/93 ...15.94 ....21.4%......17 . .....3.......13.08 .... -8.2% 14..Valley....3/24/93 ...14.25 ...-10.6%......13........1........19.49......3.1% 15..Peak.....6/17/93 ...18.90.....32.6%...... 85.......6.......15.73 .....13.1% 16..Valley...8/16/93 ...13.92 ....-26.4%..... 60.....13.......19.13 .....17.2% 17..Peak.....9/03/93....16.31......17.2%......18.......1.......13.41......-7.1% 18..Valley...10/04/93...14.44 ....-11.5%......31.......1.......19.70 .....11.9% 19..Peak.... 12/30/93...17.60 .....21.9%......87.......0......14.57 .......9.7% 20..Valley....3/31/94....13.29 ....-24.5%......91.......2......18.43......-18.1% 21..Peak......3/29/95....22.50.....69.4%.....363......3......18.96.......-5.8% 22..Valley.....5/15/95....20.13..... -10.6%.....47......5......25.96........0.6% 23..Peak......8/1/95......25.81......28.3%..... 78..... 5......21.93 ......-5.7% 24..Valley....9/8/95.......23.25.....-9.9%....... 38....10.....29.40 .......-12.1% 25..Peak.....12/14/95....33.44.....43.8%.......97......5.....28.77.........-4.9% 26..Valley.....1/19/96.....30.25.....-9.5%.......36....14..... 37.10.........4.9% 27..Peak.......2/13/96.....35.38....16.9%.......25.....4...... 30.50 ........-0.8% 28..Valley.....3/14/96..... 30.75....-13.1%......30.....11.....37.65.........4.0% 29..Peak.......4/3/96 ......36.19....17.7%.......20..... 2......31.23 .......-0.7% 30..Valley......5/8/96......31.44....-13.1%......35......3......38.41........-0.7% 31..Peak.......6/17/96.....38.69....23.1%.......40......3......33.47........2.0% 32..Valley......7/16/96.....32.81....-15.2%.....29......2.......39.92........-7.7% 33..Peak.....10/21/96......43.25...31.8%.......97..... 5.......37.56....... -4.9% 34..Valley....10/28/96.....39.50....-8.7%........7.......5.......47.28 ....... 3.6% 35..Peak.....11/26/96 .....45.63...15.5%......29.......4.......39.69 .......-0.1% 36..Valley....12/6/96 .......39.75...-12.9%.....10.......5.......47.56........-4.6% 37..Peak.......2/18/97......49.88...25.5%......74...... 5.......43.50.........4.8% 38..Valley..... 4/03/97......41.50...-16.8%.....44.....15.......49.48........30.9% 39..Peak.......7/07/97.......64.75.. 56.0%......95 ....18.....55.13 .........-7.4% 40...Valley....8/18/97........51.06...-21.1%.....42 ...11.....66.88.........10.1% 41...Peak....10/24/97.......73.63 ...44.2%......67.....3 ....62.00...........4.8% 42...Valley...10/27/97.......65.00 ...-11.7% .....4.....2.....85.50.........-12.1% 43...Peak....10/30/97.......74.88.....15.2% .....2..... 3.....66.00.........+0.5% 44...Valley...11/13/97.......66.31....-11.3%....14.... 3.....83.00.........-3.6% 45...Peak....12/04/97.......80.00.....20.6%....21.....2......69.13.......+0.6% 46...Valley...12/19/97.......69.56....-13.0%....15.....1......87.13........+9.0% 47...Peak......1/05/98.......79.94.....14.9% ....17....1......69.38 ....... -2.4% 48...Valley... 1/12/98...... 71.06.....-11.1% .... 7....3 .....87.00........ -4.9% 49...Peak..... 2/27/98...... 91.44.......28.7% ...46 ...1 ....79.87 ....... -5.1% 50...Valley....3/06/98.......84.13.........-8.0% .... 7 ...3....103.71.......+0.0% 51....Peak.....4/06/98 ....103.75........23.3%...31...13.....91.86 ........-3.6% 52...Valley.... 4/16/98......95.31........ -8.1%....10 ....1...116.50 ........-4.3% 53...Peak......4/21/98.....121.75.........27.7%.....5 ....8...109.12..........4.5% 54...Valley....5/17/98 .....104.75........-14.0% ...26 ..2....124.00.......+8.6% 55....Peak ....5/20/98 .....114.19.........9.0%......3 ...4 ....101.10.......+0.8% 56 ...Valley.. 6/01/98......100.38........-12.1%....12...5 ....119.75.......+4.2% 57....Peak.... 6/18/98 ....114.94..........14.5%....17...1 ...102.00........-3.4% 58....Valley.. 7/06/98 .....105.63......... -8.1% ...18 ..4.....126.59.......+5.0% 59....Peak ...7/14/98......120.56..........14.1% .....8 ..4....107.00........+9.2% 60... Valley... 8/11/98......98.00.........-18.7%.....28...1.....117.19.......+7.6% 61....Peak...8/19/98.......108.94..........10.6% .....8 ..1.......97.06........+5.5% 62....Valley.. 9/01/98 ..... 92.00......... -15.5% ...13 ..6....109.79.......+7.6% 63....Peak ...9/03/98......102.06..........10.9% ......2....5.....90.32........-3.4% 64... Valley.. 9/04/98......93.50...........-8.4%........1... 5...110.79.......+6.7% 65....Peak.....9/15/98.....103.88........+11.1%.....11...0.... 92.25.......-2.9% 66....Valley....9/21/98......95.00.........-8.5%.........6...0....110.00.....+0.7% 67....Peak.....9/28/98.....109.19........+14.9%...... 7...2......96.93.....+12.7% 68....Valley...10/08/98......86.00........-21.3%.....10...5......101.40.....+4.6% 69....Peak.....10/12/98.... 96.94........+12.7%.......4...0.... 85.30......-3.6% 70....Valley...10/14/98......88.50.........-8.7%........2...2....103.36.......-19.8% 71....Peak....12/31/98 ... 128.94......+45.7%.......78...1.....114.00.......+4.1% 72....Valley...1/12/99......109.56........-15.0%.....12...4.....127.49........-5.3% 73....Peak....2/02/99 ... 134.63.......+22.9%......21...5.....118.66.......-5.1% 74....Valley...2/09/99......125.00........-7.1%.........7.....0....139.84........-3.2% 75....Peak.....3/23/99 ... 144.50.........+15.6%....42....2.....128.27.......-4.9% 76....Valley...3/26/99.....134.88.........-6.7%........3....0.......157.25.......+4.7% 77....Peak.....4/12/99... 150.13.......+11.3%.......17....2.....131.31.......+15.0% 78....Valley...4/19/99.....115.88........-12.8%........4....4......134.89......+3.7% 79....Peak.....4/23/99... 130.13.......+12.3%.........4....3.......113.39.....-0.0% 80....Valley...5/5/99.....113.38........-12.9%........12....5.... ........Pending ______________________________________________ Average..Peak (1999) N=4..............+15.5%.....21.............3 Average..Peak (1998) N=13............+18.3%.....18 ............3 Average..Peak (1997) N= 5.............+32.3%.....52.............7 Average..Peak (90-99) N=40...........+27.1%.....61 ............4 Average..Valley (1999) N= 5 .......... -12.9%......8 .............3 Average..Valley (1998) N=12 ......... -12.1%.....12 .............3 Average.. Valley (1997) N= 5...........-14.2%.....10 .............2 Average..Valley (90-99) N=40 .........-14.2%.....28 .............6 The Peabody 1999 Archives 5/05/99 PFE 118.31 "Moving higher to 130s". 5/02/99 PFE 116.44 " Model reverses from Neutral: Moving higher to 130s" 4/28/99 PFE@115 15/16: "Neutral with a downward bias ...price momentum and segment psychology need to reverse for PFE to change direction... Target Peabody Valley: 113.39" 4/25/99 PFE@127: "Neutral with an upward bias...expect a run at 130." 4/20/99 PFE@118: "This is a major PFE buying opportunity....that due to the rapid decline usually freezes most investors amd PFErs from taking action." 4/18/99 PFE@127 1/16 "Moving higher from the Peabody Valley...The Model is indicating a major buy signal for PFE....Accordingly, Mr. Peabody will be adding 100 shares by the end of Tuesday's close. 4/15/99 PFE@130 "Moving higher from the Peabody Valley...After another bout of profit-taking in the am, PFE will rebound strongly on Friday..." 4/14/99 PFE@ 144 5/8 "Neutral with an upward bias...Be very alert!! PFE 1 Qt earnings could trigger a strong move up or down..If the move is down to the 140 level, another PFE buy opportunity will be upon us." 4/10/99 PFE@146 "Neutral with an upward bias...Particularly exciting week with many forces at play...Expect traditional profit-taking down to 140 before the run at 150..." www3.techstocks.com 3/29/99 PFE@141: "Headed higher to an all-time high (144 1/2) and more.....PFE will propel pass 150 in April". Message 8595595 3/28/99 PFE@135: " A PFE buying opportunity will surface this week....The basic PFE PFUNdamentals have never been stronger. In July, you will be wondering why you did not buy PFE at pre-adjusted split levels of 43-45 (129 to 135)." Message 8569605 3/23/99 PFE@139.25: "PFE will reverse and move lower". www3.techstocks.com 3/16/99 PFE@142.00: "PFE will reverse and move lower". www3.techstocks.com 3/11/99 PFE@140.68: "PFE will reverse and move lower". www3.techstocks.com 3/08/99 PFE@139.56: "PFE will reverse and move lower..long-term PFE is headed to the long-awaited $150 level." www3.techstocks.com 3/07/99 PFE@136.56: "PFE will now battle @140..expect profit-taking at all-time highs and even a possible drop back to the high 120s." www3.techstocks.com 2/28/99 PFE@131.94: "Expect a March trading range of 125 to 142". www3.techstocks.com 2/23/99 PFE@ 133.88: "PFE moving higher to $140". www3.techstocks.com 2/14/99 PFE@130.13: "Short-term trend "Neutral"...PFE could sink to another buying opportunity or jump to an all-time high". www3.techstocks.com 2/09/99 PFE@125.25:" Be very alert for a buying opportunity this week." www3.techstocks.com 2/02/99 PFE@ 132.69: "PFE will reverse and move lower....a final attempt @135 before the Valley ride begins". www3.techstocks.com 1/31/99 PFE@128.88 :" Expect a February trading range of 119 to 135+". (Actual: 125 to 135) www3.techstocks.com 1/28/99 PFE@127.56: "PFE has momentum and will break an all-time high and possibly the 130 level...but profit-taking will begin". www3.techstocks.com 1/27/99 PFE@121.94: "3-4-1 and have PFun!...Thursday is the key day." www3.techstocks.com 1/26/99 PFE@120.13: "PFE moving higher...positive trend will gain momentum." www3.techstocks.com 1/24/99 PFE@115.75: "Near term direction unclear...positive PFE news to be announced" www3.techstocks.com 1/10/99 PFE@122.25: "After 2 months, the Model has reversed and shows a positive upward trend....A PFE split announcement is guaranteed later this month with a 75% probability of a historic 3-1." www3.techstocks.com The PFE 1999 Split: All you need to know -At the 4/22/99 Annual Meeting, shareholders officially authorized increasing the number of outstanding shares to allow a 3-1 split and a future 2-1 split. -Following the meeting, the PFE Board of Directors met and formally approved the 3-1 split and set June 30, 1999 as its effective date. - The record date is June 2, 1999. Purchases of PFE between June 2, 1999 and June 30, 1999 will also split 3-1. -A split does not increase the value of PFE (100 shares@150 will be converted to 300shares@50). However, historically it certainly has not hurt the PFE price . Note PFE's growth during the split years: Year Ending..... Dow ........PFE......% Chg . Date................ Index.......Price.....Prior Year....Comments 12/31/87...........1,896........5.82......-25.0%....... Bear market/market crash 12/30/88...........2,169........7.25.......24.7% 12/29/89........... 2,753.......8.69......19.9% 12/31/90............2,634.......10.10.....16.2% 12/31/91............3,168.......21.00.......108.0%.....2-1 split (2/91) 12/31/92.......... 3,301.......18.13......-13.7%......Clinton elected president 12/31/93......... ..3,754........17.25.......-4.8%.......Healthcare reform pending 12/30/94......... ..3,844........19.32.......12.0% 12/29/95............5,177........31.50.......63.1% ......2-1 split (6/95) 12/30/96............6,448........41.50.......31.7% 12/31/97............7,908........74.56.......79.7% ......2-1 split (6/30/97)/Lipitor launched 12/31/98......... ..9,181........125.00......67.6%......Viagra approved (3/27/98) 05/05/99............10,955......118.31...... -5.4%.....Celebrex launched (1/19/99)