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To: Gus who wrote (8134)	5/5/1999 9:52:00 PM
From: Gus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

JAMES FLANIGAN / On Southern California Peter F. Drucker's 33rd Book Sees Trends for Next Century "......The most important new certainty--if only because there is no precedent for it in all of history--is the collapsing birthrate in the developed world," Drucker writes. He is referring to the decline of childbearing that, unless reversed, will reduce Italy from 60 million people to 20 million and Japan from 125 million to 55 million in the next century. The trend is widespread, with population aging even in a developing country like China. The U.S. population is aging more slowly than most because of immigration and high birthrate patterns among offspring of recent immigrants. Today's low birthrates, even if they reverse in the new century, already dictate aging populations in most countries for at least the next 20 years, with profound consequences for business and politics..... ........In today's second information revolution, the few consequences we can foresee are impressive. Education will change, Drucker writes. "Long-distance learning may well make obsolete the free-standing undergraduate college. The center of gravity will shift to the continuing education of adults and move off campus to homes and cars and workplaces. "Health care will be defined as the maintenance of physical and mental functioning rather than as the fight against disease."