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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (7055)	5/6/1999 12:57:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78472

Jeffrey, Always wary of responding off the top of my head to you, since inevitably you've put more thought into your question and the potential answers than I put in my sometimes-flippant responses. Here goes anyway: Most stocks I follow have had quite a bounce of late off their lows. Midway included. So the threat is a quick 25-30% loss if the value trend reverses. What is close? I see Fair Isaac (FIC) and J.D. Edwards (JDEC) as millenium plays in reverse. They are falling because of Y2K, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Fair Isaac I've already discussed. A leader in their niche at historical ratio lows. J.D. Edwards falls in the ERP category, but it mainly sells to the mid-cap market. It does not face the same limitations that PSFT and SAP do (these two face a saturated market in addition to Y2K). In fact, PSFT and SAP would love to move into JD Edwards' territory, but are limited by the design of their software. Recently JDEC jumped on a bad preannouncement. That tells me it is hitting its bottom. The bugger is that management is still selling. On a ratio basis, JDEC is twice as cheap as PSFT, with a great balance sheet and no debt. Champion Homes and Borders you already know about. I'm not the only one who likes Borders. Dreman devoted some space to it in the May 3rd Forbes. Robert Half I've already mentioned as well. Anchor Gaming I did buy some around recent prices. When these turn, I see easy 50% gains in relatively short periods. And the downside is limited. Elamex (ELAMF) is as cheap as ever. In, yes, semiconductors, my old favorite Speedfam, now Speedfam-IPEC has a lot of short-sighted shareholders. Looks decent to me as a down-and-out cyclical currently scraping bottom with a lot of doubters but a lot of cash and below book, low ratios. A double at some point in the next few years.A great SI thread with an excellent analyst Mr. Sam. In restaurants, I really do like BUNZ the most. I don't have it entirely figured out, but 50% isn't a stretch by any means. They are profitable, and there's a lot of areas yet to expand into. Can't wait for them to get to Silicon Valley. Mike