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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teflon who wrote (22228)	5/5/1999 10:18:00 PM
From: PMS Witch	Respond to of 74651

then I'm gaining on him In that case, it's only a matter of time before you catch up. We'll be watching your sales too. Patience has its rewards, PW.

To: Teflon who wrote (22228)	5/5/1999 10:35:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Respond to of 74651

Teflon - a more "long range" question... I can understand your never selling MSFT. I never sold my original 1000 shares I bought in 91, I've held through all the splits. I have traded a chunk of MSFT on the side though. However, if you look at the history of these "high performing" stocks, they have their "growth stage" and then a flat period, and often a decline into irrelevancy. KO may be a possible exception, but there was a time in the 70s when KO was as flat as, well, old coke. I've raised the argument on this board, that MSFT's growth may be slowing, simply due to mathematical reasons. It's much harder to keep growing at the same fast rate on a percentage basis, when you are close to a 1/2 trillion behemoth. They need to find new markets - they will grow on the desktop at the rate of market growth (it is not likely they can control a much bigger % of that market than now). MSFT certainly has aggresive, creative management. But the sheer size of this ship may slow its speed. In view of this, do you forsee a day when you will sell your MSFT shares (ie for reasons to do with growth, and not for example because you want to buy a new house)? Personally, I think I won't face that question for another 2-3 years. But if I sense MSFT slowing after that, or simply the prospects seem smaller, I will sell. After all, we don't, or shouldn't hold stocks for purely sentimental reasons. In a strange way, one can almost say, if I had to establish a new position in MSFT today, for the first time, I'd have to think long and hard. I think the odds of MSFT repeating it's growth with another 10 splits, and average yearly appreciation of 65% for the next 10-15 years seems vanishingly small. Gotta go find yourself a new MSFT, a new DELL, to get in on the ground floor to secure your retirement, if you're just starting out. Some of the frenzy in inet stocks, is surely a search for the new wonder stock, that will "set your for life". AOL has been doing a good job of it :) I have no doubt that such a stock(s) exists - the unknown (or known, but underestimated) XYZ stock (I don't mean to imply it's a NYSE stock, so, say - WXYZ). However, maybe you think I got it all wrong, and good old MSFT is still good for such a task? Feel like sharing some deep thoughts here? I'd love to hear your perspective! Morgan