Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill F. who wrote (38850)	5/5/1999 11:42:00 PM
From: wlheatmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Bill, Thanks for the lead....here's what I found after surfing from 8/12-9/30/98......I'll post it for Mythsters....if you think there's more to know...please add...thanks again. Mike From September 10, 1998: People are always asking me for buy recommendations, but there isn't much that I want to buy probably until late 1999. In response to those requests and what I believe to be a timely opportunity, I am going to make another recommendation. The reason why I was unable to finish The Rap yesterday was that I was at a board meeting for Pan American Silver (#PAASF#). I prefer silver to gold, actually, and I believe that Pan American Silver is the best investment in silver. The company made an announcement today concerning our property in Russia. Now that this information has been disseminated, I suggest that anyone who wants to invest in the metals look at this company. As far as the exposure in Russia, the money that has been spent so far is protected by political risk insurance, should things deteriorate further. I believe that silver is going to perform far better than gold, which is why Warren Buffet took a position in it - people tend to forget that. Be that as it may, when Buffet announced that he had purchased silver, it was trading at about $7, it is now at $5. Pan American was at $12 and now it is $5 1/2. Anyone who owns gold should own silver and anyone who owns silver should own Pan American. NOW LET ME BE CLEAR: I am a director, I own shares personally and I own shares in my fund. I recently bought a fair amount of additional stock in the company. You should buy this company only if silver is right for you. If the stock were to get cut in half or something happens in the silver market, don't complain to me. From September 23, 1998: Hi ho silver... Comex warehouse receipts for silver dropped last night to 76 million ounces. I expect that it will be less than 70 million ounces in the not-too-distant future. For comparison purposes, more than a year ago they were over 120 million ounces and three years ago they were over 200 million ounces. Basically, the silver that underlies the futures contracts of the Comex is disappearing. We have 76 million now, while the open interest is about 350 million ounces (there are 76 million ounces supporting 350 million ounces of speculation). If those numbers were applied to a stock, we would have a recipe for a massive short squeeze. The silver is going to India, and that flies in the face of popular belief, which says India can't be importing silver because of its economic turmoil. The reason I continue to be more bullish on silver than gold is because the supply/demand situation is so much more bullish. We have been consuming more silver than we have been producing for nine years. The supply/demand deficit is now about 200 million ounces. To put that number into perspective, annual mine production is only about 500 million ounces, which is within 10 percent of where it was 20 years ago. At some point soon, we will need new mines and that will translate into higher prices. (Economics 101.) Since it takes a long time to bring new mines into production, the price will substantially overshoot on the upside, just as copper did between 1986 (the bottom) and 1990 as it rallied from $.60 to $1.30. (Keep in mind that unlike silver and gold, there is no investment demand for copper.) When you combine the tremendously attractive supply-and-demand story with the dislocations in the world that make people friendly toward the metals (i.e. my case for gold a few weeks ago) you have a powerful story. We'll see if its time has come.