To: GreenKeeper who wrote (17967 ) 5/6/1999 4:41:00 AM From: The Flying Crane Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 40688
Hi everyone: GK, enjoy reading your post. "An internet sized multiple (15) times revenues (30000 customers times 360) divided by # shares is about 3.60. Double that if you are looking for 60,000 customers, or matching revenues from advertising, alliance fees, netcasts, etc and you get about 7.20, which was roughly our pre launch closing price peak." The way I see this is that everyone who is not invested or speculated in PNLK right now is watching and waiting to see if subscribers are willing to pay less than a $1 a day for this service. Amidst all the free sites out there, the skepticism is serious. IMHO, IF PNLK can sign up 30,000 paying subscribers, forget 60,000 for now, you can pretty much forget $3.60. In fact, you will be very lucky if you bought some for $3.60. The 30,000 paid subscribers automatically eliminate all skepticism that anyone may have about this revenue stream. Once revenue is established, IMHO, the demand for this stock will be something to be behold of… Like you, I am also adjusting my expectation… I am now not going to extrapolate the near term price movement based on future potential of this company. Future potential without established revenue only gives us roller coaster ride. I am now going to just sit tight and wait for revenue to be established. Sure, price may move up during the waiting period based on news and whatnot; but that is just the appetizer. I am also not going to expect any massive sign up for the near future. (Hey, I am just being conservative!) Even if 30,000 is not achieved after 12 months, I am not going to make a big deal out of it as long as PNLK continues to get some healthy dose of paid sign up in the tune of 500-1000 per month. My ONLY number one concern is that PNLK continues to get enough cash to survive and build its business without resorting to more stock diluting. Sure, there are other revenue streams; but they are also depended on the traffic. And traffic depended on loyal subscribers. This adjustment of expectation is easy now because of V3. V3 proves to me that PNLK's management has the technical know-how to design a functional import/export Webtool. Not only that, the alliances in the V3 also proves that management has the connections and resources to make this work. Ahhh…. one more… the way V3 is structured also proves that management has the foresight to take into consideration the potential for increasing traffic by allowing nonpaying subscribers limited access, by creating an auction site for the near future, by having a netcast capability available for businesses. These three critical strengths of PNLK management are all I need to sit tight with my shares and forget about the near term day-to-day price movement. Because I am NOT investing 90 percentage of my portfolio in PNLK, I will be scouting and speculating in other stocks to pass my times. Because of my gain from other stocks in my portfolio, I was able to add to my PNLK holding during the last year downdraft. That is why I will never put all my eggs in one basket. The problem with putting all your eggs in one basket is that the basket becomes your entire preoccupation. Suddenly, the day-to-day price movement becomes the pulse of your heart… not exactly what I have in mind… It all comes down to managing your risk. If you manage your risk well, patience can be extended and tolerated. Here is another one of my trading motto: "Give risk your full respect, and it will spare your soul… take risk for granted, and it will eat you alive and keep your soul…" In conclusion, I am speculating that we have a winner here; but it needs more time to build its business. Look around us, as many posters have made us aware, the Internet Infrastructure is continuing to grow in leaps and bounds. Better and faster bandwidths are in the work, banks are going online, etc... funny how when we are involved in our own internet investment, the growth of the internet infrastructure become much more acute to us... We may be getting there sooner… but we won't know until the fat lady sings... I am waiting, waiting, and waiting patiently... Yea, all of the above is my opinion only. I apologize if I am offending anyone here with my rambling… Remember everyone, To Each His Own And Prosperity to ALL!