Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (20717)	5/6/1999 12:02:00 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 67879

I have not seen any evidence of wholesale institutional selling on this stock. It tends to be very volatile. I have just been accumulating every time it tanks. I am hoping for a home run so I don't worry too much about timing the exact bottom for any short term down drafts.

To: j g cordes who wrote (20717)	5/11/1999 2:40:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 67879

Jim, I'll answer your question about ANDW here as Pat Mudge asked the same thing. Message 9456532 From the management's perspective, wide spread deploy of LMDS is more than 2 years away. Of course this was three Q's ago so things may have changed. As far as I know LMDS has only seen limited deployment in North America. WCII is one example. I can only think of one other limited deployment in Canada off the top on my head. I have been out of the loop for a while so my information may be a little out of date. In terms of their other businesses, Q3 (their next Q) and Q4 are traditionally stronger as the weather permits tower constructions. I expect a slight improvement in margin as more of the plant facilities can be utilized. In the last conference call the analysts suggested that the order books of MOT, NT and LU wireless divisions looked good. Not great but good, so that should translated into increased sales for ANDW. Pricing pressure is still very strong as the barriers to entry into the business are not very high. Digital TV may be the bigger driver for ANDW's earnings, before LMDS. They have a master service contract with the FOX network. The affiliates have the option to purchase products from ANDW. They installed Chicago's first HDTV antenna last Q. Note that this roll out has been slower than anticipated too. The networks have too much invested in the old technology and broadcasted TV viewing is declining when compared to cable. From a fundamental point of view it looks like ANDW just got upgraded by the analyst last month in anticipation of a margin improvement and revenue improvements. Note that their earnings are volatile. So you need to sit close to the exits if you are position trading. The non-linear Q combined with short order times by their clients can lead to big misses of analysts estimates. nordby.com From a technical perspective I tend to agree with this appraisal. stockconsultant.com If you are a long term investor and can stand so volatility I would take a partial position here. If I were trading this stock I would wait as the risk reward is not as good as I would like. The middle of next Q maybe a better time as some early indication will have come in on sales. On the travel front, I was looking for a crash film making course to take in New York this summer. I am particularly interested in the lighting and cinematography aspects. I don't really want to be a film maker as I know one person's who is trying to make it as a director and have seen that talent does not matter so much as who you know. It really is a funny business. You would not believe the amount of overtime I am owed so I thought I would spend a few weeks being an "artist".<g> I really need the down time right now. Actually the course could be on glass blowing or photography. I just thought it would be interesting to spend so time with a young more artistic crowd. I actually miss the optimism of that age. Being an "old" (old is anyone in their mid-30's in the high tech world) established engineer can make one's perspective very rigid. it sure is one h*ll of a way to make a living. <g> Harry

To: j g cordes who wrote (20717)	5/11/1999 3:38:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 67879

Jim, It looked like the institutions were on the sell side for CSCO in advanced of earnings according to the Thomson I-Watch site. Caution might be advised here. thomsoninvest.net Does anyone have the money flow for the last few weeks for CSCO from the trading-ideas.com site. On another note 40 percent of all stocks are now more than 1 standard deviation above their 200 SAM. It got to 50 percent last year before we tanked in April. On the ORTL action, it looks like it is positioning for the June 2,1999 earnings release. 1/3 of the volume today looks like it is on the sell side for the institutions. This is a critical Q as they need to show signs of a turn around after a number of disappointing Q's. All indications from other cable infrastructure companies indicate earnings should be good. I don't think they can do any more to contain cost, so they need legitimate revenue growth to get the company going again. Harry