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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Vayda who wrote (6045)	5/6/1999 11:56:00 AM
From: Rocket Scientist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

Jeff, if you really mean "bottom line" profits, you've got at least another 18 months to wait, according to mgmt. The bottom line earnings will worsen for the next few quarters, in all likelihood, even as EBITDA grows substantially in the FSS sector, because G* will be a huge loss item in its first several quarters under even the most optimistic scenario. And each time a new FSS bird is put up, depreciation starts at full bore, while revenue tends to ramp up over time, so I expect Orion 2, if not T7 will actually contribute a loss for the first 1-2 quarters after launch. Also, I believe the company has been capitalizing Orion interest costs, which will have to be expensed once that satellite goes into operation. The Loral "story" remains one of EBITDA for a while; but that story looks better than ever to me now, based on the bookings and sat utilization estimates in the latest report and conf call. Hang in there. Regards, RS

To: Jeff Vayda who wrote (6045)	5/6/1999 1:14:00 PM
From: RMiethe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

I think poster RocketScientist is right on in his post today. I will tell you why I have this feeling that Vman's comments may be right about the little fish getting swallowed by the big fish. Vman has been talking about AT&T for a while now, and I see this man Armstrong buying just about everything that is landlocked for his communications empire. The only thing he hasn't bought is a satellite franchise, which he needs to complete the picture. It seems every other week he has bought something else. I am not saying in any way that I know what AT&T is going to do in the future-- because I don't. However, if you watch someone's behavior for a while, you get a picture of what that person is like, and what they are about. Well, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to look at what Michael Armstrong of AT&T is about. That is why I said I was afraid LOR would be bought out below what it a fair price for it. I agree that LOR is worth more than 2 or 3 times its current value-- if you look out to FY 2002. You just have to wonder if AT&T is going to wait that long. Like I said, I have no idea what AT&T is going to do, and am not saying that they will do anything at all. However, the easiest way to get a business is to go on the tape and bid 2 times what an undervalued stock is worth, and that's that. I saw it happen with Marathon Oil (which I owned) back in 1982. Company said no way no how were they for sale, and Mobil went on the tape and bid cash for them and that was that.