To: Mark Palmberg who wrote (2340 ) 5/6/1999 1:00:00 PM From: lml Respond to of 4298
I saw Michael Armstrong address this antitrust issue yesterday at a Townhall luncheon here in Los Angeles yesterday, which occurred shortly after his CNBC interview yesterday. Undoubtedly, Michael would not being moving forward with this transaction unless he believed T had a likely chance of success surmounting any antitrust concerns that would be addressed by the FCC or Congress. Issues raised by special interest groups opposed to execution of T's plan to compete for local access were an obvious given. Michael provided the some background of the regulatory landscape under which the MSOs are currently operating. In particular, he cited the temporary suspension of the "30 percent rule" following the recent Supreme Court ruling striking down as unconstitutional certain provisions of the regulation on 1st Amendment grounds. Notwithstanding he explained the mechanics of how the percentage calculation is determined & how credits, or as he referred to, "attrition," is applied for investments held in other MSOs or sub-contractors, to lower the percentage & the possibility of selling off certain assets that would be necessary to pass muster of any Congression/FCC conditions. He expressed faith that T was acting consistent with the intent of Telecommunication Act of 1996 -- to bring competition to the local loop -- that the nation's telephone customers have yet to see. The way I see it, any argument asserting a monopolistic market is utterly misplaced with respect to telephony. This is Michael's first & foremost objective in acquiring HFC plant. His core business strategy is to establish a HFC footprint to support & complement T's long distance network. Beyond that, it is provide a complete package of data, voice & video services to the home, & to provide wireless access to such services when the customer is away from home. IMHO, there is enough flexibility in his strategy to accommodate most concerns raised by critics. Steve Case, for one, should embrace what opportunities T may offer AOL instead of crying to Congress every week. T obviously values AOL's significant customer base & would be willing to offer AOL access over it HFC pipes at market-competitive price in exchange for certain access to AOL's customers. This is business. This is modern-day competition in the high-tech industry in which major competitors often partner to deliver to a more complete integrated product or service to the customer. There a many lessons to be learned from Michael with respect to how he orchestrated the UMG transaction & was able to provide offer a positive solution to CMCSA & its SHs. Steve Case should be the first to take note. I think the overriding benefit of introducing competition over the local loop will preempt any arguments regarding over-consolidation within the cable industry. JMO.