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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (122757)	5/6/1999 1:03:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Chuzz- I agree with your (eventual) "flattening curve for technology" theory..however, looking at what is going on (and what is planned) for telecommunications, internet, etc....I am hard-pressed to see how anyone, could successfully argue that we are near the "flattening point".... Businesses, in this country, have only begun to implement the internet for everything from sales to communication..... Overseas, businesses are far behind the U.S. rate of implementation. In telecom, in this country, we are just beginning to see such things as high-speed access and data transmission. Overseas, almost non-existent. Businesses here have broadly used hardware, and seen the productivity and profit gains as a result. Overseas, to a much lesser degree. As investors, a core part of strategy should be to make sure (that the companies we invest in) are savvy in how they plan to expand on a world-wide basis going forward...although growth opportunities will be good in the U.S., they pale to what the possibilities will be overseas... As a result, the technological curve has only just begun.....the great thing about many segments of hardware, telecom, the internet....as capacity and sales grow, per unit cost fall dramatically...what a great damper on inflation (going forward), especially so given these areas rising % of total output... (I remember well the $5 a minute phone calls I used to make from Germany to the U.S. while living there....in retrospect, I suppose us Yanks played a big role in funding the formerly ample German welfare system...)

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (122757)	5/6/1999 2:13:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Chuzz,..Re:.wouldn't you agree that the real issue is not so much interest rates as real interest rates (i.e., inflation adjusted rates). Yep, I agree. However, the real interest rate, coupon, on the 10 year treasury is 4.75% and inflation as measured by the last released CPI is 1.7% so the 'real rate' is 3.05% which is low compared with the 3.6% yield over the past decade. You can get an indexed 10 yr. which yields 3.87%. ny.frb.org quote.bloomberg.com Ten-year Treasuries have yielded about 3.6 percent, after inflation, over the last decade. The current yield curve is steepening and probably with good cause when we consider all the recent economic reports. Re:.I'm not sure that this is a new paradigm. I think we are seeing a burst of new technology similar to what happened a century ago. But we will eventually achieve a new equilibrium level. I think we're at a very low level on that curve and equilibrium is far away. sha.cornell.edu The more technology evolves, the more new applications and concepts are invented. Look at the medical industry and gene discoveries, look at the space program and the spread of technology filtered down to domestic applications, and now the net which is probably more revolutionary than the telephone. We're just at the beginning.<g> Maybe we should clone AG since he seems to understand this?<vbg> Then again, maybe I just don't 'get it'.<g> Cheers, Lee