Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (44169)	5/6/1999 1:06:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Bear Stearns this am---Early est show OPEC at roughly 56% compliance in April (Quota agm't misunderstood)--but Compliance of 50% could push oil to $25---OPEC output in April (ex Iraq) declined by 1.23mmbpd from March levels. But,production in March was some 0.6 above the June 98 quota agmt.Therefore, the March99 Quota Agm't calls for prod to be cut by 2.3 from March level actual(1.7+0.6)...We project demand for OPEC oil in Q2,3,4 to average 26.9mmb/d.Our estimates do not factor in voluntary reductions by non-OPEC, as they have promised but assume an inventory draw of just under 1.0, enough to eliminate all excess inventories. Our estimates suggest that if OPEC plus non-OPEC production is cut by 0.8,supply and demand will be in balance and inventories will be in a 'normal' range at year end in line with the average of 1996-98... If production is cut by 1.3 or 50% of the targeted amount, we estimate that world supply would fall short of projected demand by more than 0.5mmb/d. In that case, oil inventories would end 1999 at a level below that of 1996, when oil was $24/bbl