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Technology Stocks : Internet Guru Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Xenogenetic who wrote (1493)	5/6/1999 7:38:00 PM
From: steve harmon - analyst	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4337

athm - important to remember and consider the impact of at&t on the equation here. at&t can market @home as a dsl and cable service -- @home as 'broadband' and not just internet add in the mediaone acquisition and at&t looks like it could pose a threat to aol which is what i saw in @home from the start, an 'aol on steroids' -- with at&t's cash flow and billing systems, reach across telco and cable @home could be huge

To: Xenogenetic who wrote (1493)	5/7/1999 12:48:00 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4337

<<FYI... PricewaterhouseCoopers Tech Forecast NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 6, 1999--With telecom and technology issues at the forefront of the news, Mike Katz and Eric Berg, the technology analysts responsible for PricewaterhouseCoopers' Technology Forecast: 1999, are compelling sources on current developments. They also have some updated predictions: Ease of use, rather than cost, is becoming the key criterion for universal adoption of the PC. According to Mssrs. Katz and Berg, the barrier to universal adoption of PCs is now ease of use. The price of PCs has fallen dramatically, and in some cases companies are offering free PCs to individuals who agree to view a certain amount of advertising. Price is no longer an issue. High-speed access to the Internet is now widely available, speeding the promise of e-business. Since the Forecast was issued last winter, more companies have announced major improvements in Internet access. This year's Forecast predicted that, with the finalization of the G.lite standard for splitterless-ADSL modems, PC manufacturers would build these modems into their consumer-oriented PCs by late 1999. However, by January, one leading manufacturer had already announced such plans. The widespread availability of G.lite and cable modems will provide much greater bandwidth, giving consumers a much richer Internet experience and paving the way for full-fledged e-business. Mssrs. Katz and Berg believe this creates opportunities for websites to take advantage of greater bandwidth to deliver new services to consumers with high-speed connections. Recent telecom technology advancements, including the deployment of packet-switching technology, are enabling phone companies to carry data 10 times more efficiently than they do now. Since a sea change is occurring in the composition of traffic, from voice to data, this will have major implications for business. Universal messaging will truly be possible. The transition from circuit-switching to packet-switching in the core telephone network predicted in this year's Forecast is coming to fruition even sooner than anticipated. One major U.S. long distance carrier has already announced plans to stop purchasing traditional central office equipment and instead will focus its new investments on packet-switching technology. Several new long distance carriers are using only packet switching. Mssrs. Katz and Berg say telecom service providers will soon find it much easier, and less costly, to provide voice and data services on one line. This has enormous implications for business: Packet-switching is the enabler for integrated networks that can combine voice, data, fax, and multimedia content. It also encourages the development of universal messaging, which allows an individual to receive all his or her message traffic (voice, fax, and email) in a single integrated mailbox. PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwcglobal.com) is the world's leading professional services organization. Drawing on the knowledge and skills of 155,000 people in 150 countries, we help our clients solve complex business problems and measurably enhance their ability to build value, manage risk and improve performance. PricewaterhouseCoopers refers to the US firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and other members of the worldwide PricewaterhouseCoopers organization. Note: Technology Forecast: 1999 can be ordered by calling 1-800-654-3387 (U.S. calls only) or +1-314-997-2540, or by sending a fax to +1-314-997-1351. To order over the Internet, refer to www.pwc-tech-forecast.com. The cost is US $450 and includes shipping and handling biz.yahoo.com; ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you for your comments Adam. We are still in the early innings of the broadband revolution. I think DSL and cable will both gain quite a following. Delivering a consistent, reliable high speed access service will be important. Customer retention will be essential for the AOLs, @homes, and RBOCs of the world. Best Regards, Scott

To: Xenogenetic who wrote (1493)	5/7/1999 12:54:00 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 4337

FYI....DELL's "White Paper" on xDSL and Home Networking dell.com <<Dell will link its leadership in broadband technologies to its home-networking products. With the maturation of the broadband market, Dell has announced collaborations with several of the regional Bell operating companies (RBOCs) to provide ADSL capability for Dell™ Dimension PCs for home and small-business customers. These partnerships will provide Dell customers with high-speed Internet access as part of Dell's ConnectDirectSM program, which is designed to provide fast, easy, and personalized Internet access. Current partners include US WEST, SBC Communications, and Bell Atlantic for ADSL services; AT&T WorldNet for ISP services; and Excite for customized Internet content. Dell expects continued deployment of ADSL technology for residential use and home-based businesses as prices for services trend downward and approach those of 56-Kbps modems on POTS lines.>> DSL is gaining more and more support all of the time. Best Regards, Scott

To: Xenogenetic who wrote (1493)	5/7/1999 1:12:00 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 4337

FYI...<<I found a great post at the Motley Fool, which I think takes a deep look at the forest, and not the tree: Subject: Worry less about the cable bogeyman Date: 5/5/99 3:24 PM Author: grapenuts Number: of 11492 I'm tired of hearing about the cable bogeyman. I own $600K or so of AOL stock and work in the internet industry. Consider the components of the retail internet industry: 1. Someone owns the wire to your house. 2. Someone provides you with IP connectivity. 3. Someone provides you with software and support for your computer. 4. Someone provides you with portal services. In the POTS-connected world of today, AOL is the significant player in areas 2,3 and 4. They also have competition in those areas, and I believe succeed partly because they address all three with a single package. They are not active in area 1. Now, what changes with the new faster access technology such as DSL and Cable Modem, which in reality is just a change in the type of signal which flows on the wire, or use of a different type of wire, in area 1. ? Well first, the POTS evolved over many years and is regulated. For example, your telephone company can't refuse to connect you to Dominos, and redirect all calls you make to Pizza shops to Round Table instead, and charge Round Table money to do so. The ownership of the wire to your house is a natural monopoly and can't be abused. Nobody has got round to regulating the new technologies, so the folk who own wires to your house think that they have a great opportunity to do some of the above, because they can link the fact that you use their wires to what you send over those wires. Clearly in time this will all fall out in the form of new regulation, but in the meantime, it's the wild west out there and a land-grab is in progress. So, the cable companies (not so much the telephone companies, since they're used to the existing regulatory regime), think that there's a chance for them to sell you item 1. from the list above and then make you buy items 2 through 4 from them too. This therefore hurts AOL, since they are the leader in areas 2-4. If you believe that this will happen, will be allowed to happen for a significant period of time, and that cable internet access will have a high market penetration during that time, THEN this is bad news for AOL's core business. (they have plenty of other businesses which would only benefit, of course---e.g. @Home use Netscape server software to run some parts of their service). I believe that the cable bogeyman is not real. First, don't underestimate the ability of the cable companies to screw up the execution of the plan. Second, don't overestimate the penetration speed of these services---a huge investment in equipment is required, which can't be made overnight. Third, regulation will come. Fouth, remember that AOL is a large diversified company to a great degree hedged against all future trends. They are the obvious natural partner for the telephone companies with DSL. If the cable companies were to be given the slice of the pie which they deserve---payment for the use of their (monopoly) wires and local routing equipment, they'd make plenty of money, but they would not harm AOL one little bit. Be more worried about Yahoo and Amazon, at least they have a clue about the internet, and are fast on their feet.>>