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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (4149)	5/6/1999 6:54:00 PM
From: clochard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

Higher oil prices add to inflation and take away profits. The bull market is about to end, as it must sooner or later. The reason why bulls are full of shit: The public are always bullish because they only know to go long. Buy low and sell high. Except they sell too late. The average joe wouldn't even know how to sell part of his 401k portfolio. The TV bulls (Peter Lynch, Abby Cohen, Ralph Acompora) are always bullish and never bearish for obvious reasons: They make their living by selling stock to the public. The market averages are mathematical lies which are easily seen and believed by the public because they are numbers which keep getting higher and higher. Even publications like Investor's Business Daily use logarithmic scales which fool people by hiding the exponential (and hence unsustainable) rise in the averages. The market's rise is simply more and more money chasing the same stocks. The public doesn't realize this and will suffer for it.

To: MythMan who wrote (4149)	5/7/1999 4:19:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

MM, >>what more do you need? All I need is technical confirmation. Naz already broke 2480 (remember?) For the SPX I'd like to see the up trend at 1315 broken, and then a new local low under 1285 to be sure there won't be any new highs. Meanwhile I'm updating my (kinda) bear spread on the NDX to reflect my ever increasing bearishness. IMO this time around the Naz will not be the lagging index (as it was in '87). The internuts are already showing weakness for quite a while, while the most recent new high was achieved by the Dow alone. The recognition that the internuts can't go on forever is starting to seep into the thick skulls of the margin players. Wednesday's run in the NDX baffled me. I was expecting a correction to 2090-2120 to increase short and it shot up 5% in 3 hours to 2155. Volatility seems to be increasing all the time. It's decision time for the market. Another bull leg could take it yet another 20% higher, but on the charts it looks like the market made it's choice yesterday, and the direction is down. Technically speaking, I belive that if the big correction is here, there's a high probability that AMZN could reach $70 by June expiration. The Dow is not telling the truth. AA, ALD, S, DD, all had a tremendous run of 50-60% in the last two months. T is a positive lately, but event driven. MSFT started positive but broke down late in the session. IMO MSFT is the stock to watch for future direction of the market. If down today, too, all hell will break loose. ATG

To: MythMan who wrote (4149)	5/11/1999 1:09:00 PM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 5676

MSFT was up, but not much. Am watching INTC now. Over 64 1/2 (trading) or 63 3/4 (closing) it will break over the down trend line from the January top. That, or a new SPX high, whichever comes first, will confirm IMO that the market has entered yet another bull leg, and with all the worries of late, this could be a big leg up. ATG