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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Smear_campaign who wrote (9135)5/7/1999 9:41:00 AM
From: Tavros  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10227
 
Guys,

Relax! It is true that NXTL still needs to spend a lot of money to complete its network, has technology that may not be compatible with anything else, etc, etc. But the fact is that it is THE ONLY remaining player with a national network that is up and running, working and producing (after a long waiting time) positive cashflow.

In my view, NXTL does not have to do anything at this point, except executing consistently its game plan, and for sure not accept an offer for $45 (as they did not). It holds THE valuable commodity, i.e., a built-up wireless network that has taken a lot of money AND time to put together and finetune. Witness how long it has taken to put this network together and compare it to what is being offered by MCI (and for that matter, by an increasing number of other long-distance players). What they bring on the table is their fiber-optic networks that are increasingly coming a dime a dozen (let me count, ATT, MCI, Sprint, Quest, Williams co., level 3 and I am sure more).

NXTL needs to stick to its game plan, continue to increase subscribers and, at some point, consider adding the missing pieces. One thing is for sure. Fiber will get much cheaper. Wireless will not and cannot be replicated as easily.

And before I finish, just take a note of how much ATT has spent to get access to the end users (over $100 billion), keep in mind that NXTL (wireless) is already there, and spectrum (as well the technical ability to utilize it) is becoming available faster than anyone thought (Geotec spectrum, industrial sprectrum, etc, etc.)

Of course McCaw knows all this staff and will not sell unless, of course somebody "bribes" him. i.e., offering him a price that is significantly higher than the present value (PV) of NXTL today (some people would say that the PV is equal to the market price). Because McCaw knows the company best, he believes that PV is greater than say $40. So in my view, anything less than $60 would be a non-starter for him (50% premium). So, no surprise here, thus far!

Stay tuned because the NXTl story is only beginning to unfold and play out. Patience will be greatly rewarded and price back-ups can only be opportunities to get on the train before it leaves the station...

Regards to the long-standing, patient and increasingly gratified NXTL holders (me being one of them)

Tavros