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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DanZ who wrote (545)	5/6/1999 8:51:00 PM
From: Street Walker	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5582

GUMM - Long Term Investment GumTech International -- specializes in functional chewing gum and common cold remedy. I will review GUMM's possibilities for Due Dilligence - Generic Nicorette gum - Remedy for the Common Cold GENERIC NICORETTE GUM - Watson Pharmaceutical (NYSE: WPI) smartmoney.com >>Watson has also recently won approval from the FDA for the first generic version of Nicorette gum. This market is estimated to be worth $200 million and a competitor's product is not expected to be available for quite some time. There just aren't too many drug companies that have figured out how to make gum. This product should be on the market by the summer. << biz.yahoo.com >>Watson recently won approval from the Food and Drug Administration for the first generic version of SmithKline Beechman's Nicorette gum. The market for the product is estimated at $200 million, and because only a small handful of manufacturers worldwide possess the technology and FDA approval to produce nicotine gum, Watson will likely experience limited competition from other generic manufacturers well after its 6-month market exclusivity expires.<< biz.yahoo.com SMITHKLINE BEECHAM >>SB's smoking cessation franchise delivered another outstanding performance, growing 68 percent to $183 million/112 million pounds.Sales of Nicorette, the smoking cessation gum, increased 92 percent, helped by the launch of the new mint flavor, while sales of NicoDerm CQ, the smoking cessation patch, increased 23 percent.<< ---------- My comments: Watson needs someone to produce their generic Nicorette gum. It may be GUMM. Time is running out for WPI to manufacture it before summer. IF GUMM gets this contract, it would add significantly to the bottom line. I hope everyone sees the numbers behind generic Nicorette...$200 million market and looking at SBH's success, its a money maker. Its a big market and the generic will be priced lower and will taste better with GUMM's expertise. IF GUMM does not get the Watson Contract, guess what? >>Watson will likely experience limited competition from other generic manufacturers well after its 6-month market exclusivity expires<< ....... GUMM could easily become Watson's competition, with their own generic Nicorette priced lower and tasting better than competitors. Either way, GUMM is going to be a winner, financially, in the generic Nicorette market. Does everyone see the long term value of GUMM based on this market alone? Now combine that to their growing DENTAL microdent market, health market and obviously the Common Cold Market. Myself, I can't really think of anything that is bigger than the common cold market. COMMON COLD -- ZICAM - zicam.com 60% owned by GUMM - Over 1 BILLION common Colds in the US per year - 5.5 BILLION is spent on colds in the US with about $1.5 BILLION spent on cold remedies. What Cold remedy is the best? With no hesitation, its ZICAM zicam.com Zicam has been on the market for 4 months. Testimonials of its success grow every day. Instead of suffering a cold for 10-14 days, one sniffs Zicam and the cold is reduced to 1-3 days. That's phenonminal and true. Because it is the most effective cold remedy, its the one people will buy. ZICAM will claim a growing chunk of the $1.5 Billion spent on rememdies year after year.....think long term. GUMM is an IRA type, long term investment you will not want to sell. Those who buy and sell, will look back in a few years and kick themselves in the btt for not holding. The float is small and held mostly by long term investors with the same vision as explained herein. What suprises can we look forward to on ZICAM? ---- first off, their PR is the same as the one for Viagra. - Because Zicam is a wonder product that has mass appeal, it it would not suprise me to see later in the fall coverage by the media (national news, 20/20, investors newspapers, etc). --- going international sooner than we thought: EVERYONE catches colds. I don't have the numbers of how many colds are in Europe and what they spend over there on remedies, but it must be huge. How much pure net profit does GUMM make on each sale of Zicam? After all the expenses of manufacturing and operational costs, $3.00 is devided between GUMM (60%) and GelTech (40%). That means around $1.80 per sale = pure profit for GUMM. That's incredible profit margins. -- I hope this helps everyone understand why I am BULLISH on GUMM for the long term. As far as safety goes, its out of most any kind of volatile sector like the techs/internets etc and will not experience any major sell off. Its owned by LONG TERM HOLDERS who buy more pieces when they can. We are buying up the float and holding. Given the above, I have a personal price target of $40-45 within the year. That's a 400% return in an IRA, better than putting money in a mutual fund. There are so many swing traders here at SI, I thought I would recommend a stock for a LONG TERM HOLD just for diversity. As far as buying GUMM, its not going to get any cheaper.* If interested, buy on the bid so as not to push the price up on other's who are like you and want a position. And remember that Watson Pharm needs to get their generic Nicorette gum produced VERY SOON. How will they do it? We'll see. Its May, and summer is just around the corner. Don't hesitate. - PS: If you read the yahoo msg boards, it is inundated by a few shorters who are at a loss and are very desparate to talk the stock down. Every thread has those types, GUMM is no exception. You'll learn quickly that they are irrational. On the otherhand, at SI, we have Dan Zimmerman, Dr. Epstein and myself who rally behind GUMM. Chart: Its not going to get any cheaper....buy on the bid. iqc.com Regards, S.W.