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To: J. P. who wrote (39315)	5/6/1999 10:53:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

JP, QCOM was one among the 7 longs in Mohan's List - this was as of Spring 97. I set a target of $150+ at that time. Having discovered myself to be a impatient short-term player, I never stayed long for that long in that one. Having said that, I do not like the back-drop in which it got to 200+. First and foremost, this rise was on complete speculation. FYI, if I recall correctly, QCOM earned more profit on lesser revenues two years ago. Second, none of the digital cellular service providers (TDMA or CDMA) appear to have a profit motive in their service plans. BellSouth boasts a $100 mil worth digital cellular network and they are continually upgrading. They discount phones heavily with the hope of locking the customer for long time. What I have been seeing is that you sign-up for that 11-12 month period and then tell the phone company to buzz off or sign-up for a new plan. That is because one year later you will get a better phone with better features and better sign-up incentives than continuing on a old plan. Supposedly the co. will at least breakeven in this period. I have my doubts. However, this phone churn is making the demand for Nokias and Mitshibishi etc. look stronger (in terms of subscribers) than it actually is. (I have an analog motorola phone. I have no intention of using that POC again. and recently signed-up for a nwe plan with Nokia phone.) What I have no doubts about is that when the era of cheap money ends, people will have to find ways to cut their expenditure. I guess some of them look at their cellular service. Also, the mad dash for that cellular customer who will "gladly" pay 35 cents per minute will moderate. IMO. BTW, outside the corporate sponsored usage, do you know one of the major segments of cellular customers? It is the high credit risk group. That is a red flag! However, in the near term, QCOM shouldn't have any fundamental problem (IMO) I liked John's techincal take on the possibility of a 30% sell of in QCOM. Having debated a little a bit, I thought I will take a shot at QCOM June 140 puts and I bought some yesterday just before the major reversal (bad timing, duh!) The stock split and my forecasted (fantacized) May meltdown scenario are what I am counting on for my puts to make money. i.e. more often than not, several stocks get sell-off following the split. Even though 30% drop is same 30% drop for a $200 stock or $65 stock, 200->140 appears a lot when compared to 65->45. Until I saw so much caution on this thread today about shorting QCOM, I thought my puts have no hope (Don't ask me why I bought them, OK?) Now, I guess I am joining LT and John at the "men with steel balls" league! -vbg-