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To: edamo who wrote (122963)	5/6/1999 11:28:00 PM
From: Venkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hello friend..I own some Mr Softie already...got some juice left tho waiting 4 a good deal

To: edamo who wrote (122963)	5/7/1999 1:17:00 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 176387

FYI...Hold your AOL and sleep well...Check out this post... <<I found a great post at the Motley Fool, which I think takes a deep look at the forest, and not the tree: Subject: Worry less about the cable bogeyman Date: 5/5/99 3:24 PM Author: grapenuts Number: of 11492 I'm tired of hearing about the cable bogeyman. I own $600K or so of AOL stock and work in the internet industry. Consider the components of the retail internet industry: 1. Someone owns the wire to your house. 2. Someone provides you with IP connectivity. 3. Someone provides you with software and support for your computer. 4. Someone provides you with portal services. In the POTS-connected world of today, AOL is the significant player in areas 2,3 and 4. They also have competition in those areas, and I believe succeed partly because they address all three with a single package. They are not active in area 1. Now, what changes with the new faster access technology such as DSL and Cable Modem, which in reality is just a change in the type of signal which flows on the wire, or use of a different type of wire, in area 1. ? Well first, the POTS evolved over many years and is regulated. For example, your telephone company can't refuse to connect you to Dominos, and redirect all calls you make to Pizza shops to Round Table instead, and charge Round Table money to do so. The ownership of the wire to your house is a natural monopoly and can't be abused. Nobody has got round to regulating the new technologies, so the folk who own wires to your house think that they have a great opportunity to do some of the above, because they can link the fact that you use their wires to what you send over those wires. Clearly in time this will all fall out in the form of new regulation, but in the meantime, it's the wild west out there and a land-grab is in progress. So, the cable companies (not so much the telephone companies, since they're used to the existing regulatory regime), think that there's a chance for them to sell you item 1. from the list above and then make you buy items 2 through 4 from them too. This therefore hurts AOL, since they are the leader in areas 2-4. If you believe that this will happen, will be allowed to happen for a significant period of time, and that cable internet access will have a high market penetration during that time, THEN this is bad news for AOL's core business. (they have plenty of other businesses which would only benefit, of course---e.g. @Home use Netscape server software to run some parts of their service). I believe that the cable bogeyman is not real. First, don't underestimate the ability of the cable companies to screw up the execution of the plan. Second, don't overestimate the penetration speed of these services---a huge investment in equipment is required, which can't be made overnight. Third, regulation will come. Fouth, remember that AOL is a large diversified company to a great degree hedged against all future trends. They are the obvious natural partner for the telephone companies with DSL. If the cable companies were to be given the slice of the pie which they deserve---payment for the use of their (monopoly) wires and local routing equipment, they'd make plenty of money, but they would not harm AOL one little bit. Be more worried about Yahoo and Amazon, at least they have a clue about the internet, and are fast on their feet.>>