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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Bid.com International (BIDS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: reg who wrote (30156)5/7/1999 9:11:00 AM
From: Mr. Forthright  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 37507
 
I agree.



To: reg who wrote (30156)5/7/1999 10:59:00 PM
From: bigdude  Respond to of 37507
 
reg, you are absolutely right about how important sales growth in Q1 will be to BII. Since Canadian retailers like Sears Canada, and The Bay posted 50% growth Q4 over Q3, I consider that to be the "bigdude seasonal adjustment factor". eBay's sales were also up about 50% Q4 over Q3.....so by having sales of approximately $6 million in both Q3 and Q4, meant that Q4 sales should have been $9 million (50% growth over $6 million in Q3 for you arts graduates). Hence, sales adjusted by the bigdude seasonal adjustment factor were actually off by 1/3. Q1 numbers are not audited and companies have some fudging room (not to say they might try something like that, but I see it too often with other companies, who fudge numbers all year and then have big adjustments in Q4)

Looking ahead, sales for Canadian retailers can be off 1/3 in Q1, so BII overcome this usual slow period to keep sales flat at $6 million. Since many people do not use the bigdude seasonal adjustment factor in their analysis, if sales are lower than $6 million, investors will be spooked.

I have no clue what Q1 sales will be but if sales growth doesn't pick up and soon, the bloom will be off the rose. Still haven't figured out why people bother to bid for stuff on the net yet, like the idea of finding a good price from a known retailer and just buying it.

I find that once sentiment turns negative on a stock, which might be triggered by continued poor sales growth in this instance, people start looking more closely at the other warts a company may have (like accounting issues etc.), and things then begin to get ugly really quickly. So I agree, the Q1 sales will be very important and I think BII realizes that too. But, then again that would be relying on fundamentals, which is a good way to lose money on internet stocks.

Good luck BII in making your numbers!

Cheers, all

bigdude.com