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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dustin who wrote (15628)	5/7/1999 12:38:00 PM
From: Jon Stept	Respond to of 41369

Dustin, re:"I feel like the prospects for AOL get better every day..." Hi Dustin, I also am not buying the market perception that AT&T now has a leg up on AOL because of their recent cable acquisitions. Broadband on cable has been hype and promise for many years. Also, the cable industry is one of the most closed, uncompetitive industries on the planet... not a very good foundation when entering an industry that relies on competitive technological innovations. Name one technological innovation that has been widely deployed over cable... can't? That's because there are none. Now, name technological innovations over copper- ISDN, SONET, XDSL, 9.6, 19.2, 38.8, 56.6... the list goes on and on. What does the internet core run on... coax? No, copper. What do all the LAN's run on, coax? No, copper. The entire internet, LAN and WAN space is running on copper and now, somehow, AT&T is going to make coax "work". Unfortunately, it was the only thing AT&T could do to get direct local access without going through the RBOC and ILEC. The RBOC and ILEC have their own competitive pressures, but a least they have access... AT&T has no local access and this is their strategy to solve that problem. That is what happens when you introduce competition... and if you don't have the technological muscle, you have to buy your way in on a promise. My dollars are in the competitive local operating companies... that is where the innovations will appear... open, competitive markets. If AT&T was a Microsoft- very aggressive, nimble and innovative- I would be worried. Just my opinion. Jon :)

To: Dustin who wrote (15628)	5/7/1999 12:57:00 PM
From: Steeny	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

Too many of us are trashing ATHM. The fact is no-one is sure how the internet will be carried in the future. Cable is a pretty good bet-considering cable's growth and capabilities. ATHM is the leader there at the moment. AOL cannot and will not rely on phone lines alone to provide internet service. In my opinion, there are 3 options to achieve this: 1. An agreement with T to lease some cable wires. The end product has to be comparable in price to ATHM. To join with another firm is fruitless since T now controls 60% of the cable market. I believe this is what will happen. It is in T's interest to make a deal to keep Congress at bay. My only worry here is what T charges AOL vs ATHM for the lines. 2. Congress forces open the cable wires. 3. Congress doesn't allow the T-UMG merger.This would be the best for AOL as Comcast would probably end up with UMG--good for AOL