That private stuff is right out of Clinton's cripp sheet.
gallup.com
Y2K Election Still Dominated by Party Frontrunners
George W. Bush Slips in Latest Poll but Continues to Lead GOP Pack
by Lydia Saad
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
While it is still eighteen months away, the year 2000 race for the presidency
continues to be dominated by strong frontrunners in both the Republican and
Democratic parties. Not only do both Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor
George W. Bush lead their nearest opponents by double-digit margins but also, at
this stage, neither is facing more than one significant challenger.
For the past twelve months, Al Gore has led a dwindling pack of potential
candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination and has recently
strengthened his lead over the one remaining contender, former New Jersey
Senator Bill Bradley. In a new Gallup poll, taken April 30 through May 2, 66% of
Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party say they
would like to see Gore win the Democratic nomination for President in 2000. This is
up from 54% in a survey taken two weeks ago. At the same time, support for
Bradley has fallen eleven points, from 34% to 23%.
George W. Bush has also demonstrated frontrunner staying power, having held
first place in Republican primary test elections since Gallup began tracking the
race in May 1998. Bush had been winning the support of more than half of
Republicans nationwide in recent months. However, in the new Gallup poll taken
this past weekend, support for Bush fell for the first time this year, dropping from
53% in a poll taken April 13-14, to 42% today. Many of the voters lost by Bush
have apparently gone to the second-place contender, Elizabeth Dole, whose
support since the previous survey has jumped eight points -- from 16% to 24%.
While many factors could account for Bush's losses and Dole's gains, it is
possible that they are due to the publicity surrounding Dole's April 16-17 trip to
Albania and Macedonia, where she visited Kosovar refugee camps.
All other candidates measured in Gallup's primary list trail far behind Dole,
including former Vice President Dan Quayle and businessman Steve Forbes, each
supported by only 6% of Republicans. Conservatives Pat Buchanan and Gary
Bauer each receive just 3%. Arizona Senator John McCain and former Tennessee
Governor Lamar Alexander are supported by just 4% and 3%, respectively, while
Congressman John Kasich of Ohio and Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire
register no more than 1%.
Historical Parallels in the Primaries
As the leader for the Democratic nomination, Al Gore seems to be following in the
tradition of Richard Nixon in 1968 and George Bush in 1988 -- both vice presidents
who held strong leads among members of their party in national primary polls
early on. While it is too soon to know what will happen to Gore, both Nixon and
Bush went on to win their party's nomination for president.
On the other side, Republican frontrunner George W. Bush seems to most closely
parallel Governor Nelson Rockefeller in 1964, Senator Gary Hart in 1988, and
Senator Bob Dole in 1996 -- all strong frontrunners a year before the election,
among a field of candidates containing no vice-presidential heir-apparent for their
party's nomination. Of this group, however, only Bob Dole maintained his lead
within the party and went on to win the nomination for president.
Abortion Issue Not a Big Factor in GOP Primary
The latest Gallup survey also asked Americans about their views on the issue of
abortion, including whether they consider themselves pro-choice or pro-life.
Despite some differences in abortion views among the Republican candidates, no
differences in Republican voter support for the leading candidates are seen on the
issue. Bush is favored by the plurality of both Republicans who call themselves
pro-life as well as those who identify themselves as being pro-choice. Dole
maintains her second-place position among both groups as well. Where the issue
seems to make a difference is in support for strongly pro-life candidates Bauer,
Buchanan and Quayle. Each is favored by 2% or less of pro-choice Republicans,
compared to 8-9% of pro-life Republicans. Virtually all of this pro-life support for
Buchanan and Bauer (though not for Quayle) is from people who say they feel
very strongly about their position on abortion.
In General Election Contest, Bush Bests Gore
Despite the slippage as favorite choice among Republicans for the GOP
nomination, George W. Bush continues to beat Al Gore in early trial heats for
president. In the latest Gallup survey, Bush leads Gore by a 16-percentage-point
margin, 56% to 40%. That margin is slightly wider (57% to 39%) among "regular"
presidential voters -- those who say they are registered to vote and say they
participated in the 1996 election. Bush's current lead is about the same as it was
this past March, but it is down slightly from mid-April, when it had expanded to 21
points.
When Americans are asked to choose between the two front-runners, Bush
receives an impressive 97% of the vote from Republican voters, compared to Gore,
who receives only 80% of the Democratic vote. Among independents who appear
to be regular presidential voters, Bush is favored over Gore by a nearly two-to-one
margin, 60% to 31%.
For results based on the sample of national adults (N=1,014) surveyed April
30-May 2, 1999, the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
REPUBLICAN LIST: FIRST MENTION
BASED ON -- 411 -- REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS; MARGIN OF
SAMPLING ERROR = ± 5 PCT. PTS.
99 Apr
13-14
99 Apr
30-May 2
Lamar Alexander
*%
3%
Gary Bauer
2
3
Patrick Buchanan
4
5
George W. Bush
53
42
Elizabeth Dole
16
24
Steve Forbes
6
6
John Kasich
2
1
John McCain
5
4
Dan Quayle
7
6
Bob Smith
*
*
Other (vol.)
*
*
None/Wouldn't
vote
2
2
No opinion
3
3
100%
100%
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic
primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell
me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the
Democratic nomination for president in the year 2000? [RANDOM ORDER: Bill
Bradley, Al Gore]
DEMOCRATIC LIST: FIRST MENTION
BASED ON -- 492 -- DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRAT LEANERS; MARGIN OF
SAMPLING ERROR = ± 5 PCT. PTS.
99 Apr
13-14
99 Apr
30-May 2
Bill Bradley
34%
23%
Al Gore
54
66
Other (vol.)
1
1
None/Wouldn't
vote
3
4
No opinion
8
6
100%
100%
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas
Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would
you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or), George
W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or),
George W. Bush, the Republican]?
Al Gore
George W.
Bush
No opinion
(NA) 99 Apr
30-May 2
40%
56%
4%
(NA) 99 Apr
13-14
38
59
3
(NA) 99 Mar
12-14
41
56
3
(NA) 99 Mar
5-7
41
56
3
(NA) 99 Feb
19-21
43
54
3
(NA) 99 Jan
8-10
47
48
5
(NA) 98 May
8-10
46
50
4
* less than 0.5%
(NA) National Adults
(vol.) volunteered response |
