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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (123105)	5/7/1999 1:29:00 PM
From: TTOSBT	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Re: "TTOSBT, I don't know whether you are aware of this but the Fed does not change long-term interest rates. Those rates are ntirely market driven. The Fed's direct effect is purely short-term; they do have the pulpit and the long-term bonds react to the Fed's stance." Yes I am aware how it works. But if you will recall the last time the FED lowered they first did 1/4 pt. Then the market was not happy with that the 30y bond traders keep telling the FED by it's trading they needed to do more much more. Then the FED preemptively did an additional 1/2 or 3/4 (I forget?) about a week later! Some times the bond market will see what the FED and the rest of us do not? And likewise sometimes the FED will know best and either can influence the other's trading. Of course a lot of that trading was due to safe haven from foreign traders worried about the Asian flu etc. What I think the current bond traders are afraid of is that Asian is now starting to turn and those safe haven foreigner may come to take some of that money back to invest in their turning markets which will tank our bonds temporarily. IMO that is why they want to bring up the rates to head off any stampede? So they will stubbornly keep everything in disarray til May 18th and possibly afterword if they want a hike and don't get it. Beside all that trading logic both in bonds and stocks have not followed logic last few weeks? And that usually means something is coming that we little guys are unaware of. You are a little guy aren't you? (in trading terms!) TTOSBT