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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Guenther Elkuch who wrote (60790)5/7/1999 3:19:00 PM
From: J. Plesha  Respond to of 97611
 
Holy Cow, Batman. What a thought. What would the Dellheads say. I'm thinking it would confuse them enough that and they might even have to buy Compaq stock. :-)

Joe P.



To: Guenther Elkuch who wrote (60790)5/7/1999 3:47:00 PM
From: cbstock  Respond to of 97611
 
Arthur Hill, Of TA Trader has some interesting things to say about CPQ from a TA perspective. He has a neat web site and I have found his info to be very insightful. It seems to confirm what is happening in the options market.

Cb

May 7, 1999

TD Trader
BullWatch
Compaq (CPQ) - 24 5/8

****************************************
Access for this report with charts is through the Premium Stock Watch
Page via the hyper link below.

tdtrader.com

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Overview: Most of us are already familiar with Compaq. It is one of the
most widely followed stocks in the market and trades almost 20 million
shares a day on average. The stock was recently hit by an earnings
disappointment when the company announced that first quarter earnings
would come in at 15 cents versus the consensus estimate of 30 cents. The
stock is currently trading at half the level it was in January. Compaq
is growing, but it is not coming out of its slump as fast as previously
thought. From the fourth quarter of 97 to the third quarter of 98,
earnings fell over 50%. Since then, earnings have slowly been increasing
and the company earned 59 cents for the year ending 12/98. The estimate
for 12/99 is $1.22 and for 12/00 $1.78. Still good growth, but can they
deliver? Compaq is the AMD of the computer industry. Compaq's products
are good and market share strong, but management has trouble executing
and bringing in the numbers.

Technical Analysis: There were two large falls in the stock: one in late
February and the other in early April. The last drop in April placed the
stock under 25. The base being built between 22 and 25 is at a support
level established in March 1998. Near term resistance is set at 25 and
the stock has traded back up to this level recently.

On the weekly charts, we have not seen strengthening in our key
oscillators. Weekly oscillators take longer to turn, especially after
large falls. On the daily charts, both the Trading Momentum Oscillator
(TMO) and Volume Force Oscillator (VFO) have been rising since
mid-April. Unfortunately this was also the case just before the drop in
early April. However, the Price Action Oscillator (PAO) did not
strengthen in early April and was not fooled. More importantly, the PAO
has strengthened markedly in the past few weeks. As it did not lie in
the past, we will take our cues from the PAO.

Prognosis: The recent strengthening in CPQ is beginning after about 532
million shares (out of total 1.7 billion shares) have changed hands
below 25. You would think that every one who wanted out is just about
out. Most if not all of the bad news should be out. Yesterday's volume
of over 27 million shares was the highest in 13 sessions. CPQ is still a
good company and prior to the earnings disappointment was on the buy
list almost every big broker. The company has Digital Equipment and Alta
Vista. There has been a management shakeup and new faces will be
appearing soon. Resistance is set at 25 and a break of this level would
confirm our bullish inclinations. The potential upside is somewhat
limited and there is plenty of resistance between 30 and 33. However, a
break of 25 should signal that the stock could move to at least 30 over
the next few weeks. Should the stock close below 22, our position would
merit reevaluation. The reward:risk ratio, at about 2:1, is not bad at
all.



To: Guenther Elkuch who wrote (60790)5/7/1999 8:27:00 PM
From: Lynn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
 
Thank you, Guenther. This is the kind of rumor I cross my fingers is more than idle speculation. Admitting total ignorance of any officers who work for Dell, excluding Michael Dell, getting someone in from Dell should, I expect, address the major weakness I see in CPQ's marketing strategy: a total disregard for, an apparent unawareness of the short and long term significance of targeting the higher education market--which leads me to a tad bit of letting off some steam:

Check Dell's site--places for K-12, higher education students, and faculty and staff as individuals as well as for institutional purchasing. I have only checked the 'faculty and staff' section and a few models, both desktop and notebooks, from Dell's regular lines are made available at very good prices with some freebies thrown in [i.e. free extra battery or zip drive from time to time]. These deals are actually better than the deals CPQ occasionally offers us shareholders on selected machines. Now take a look at CPQ's site. Nothing. Zip. Zero. Nada. Kulu mafi. Making an assumption on my part, this is because CPQ is working under the faulty assumption that the educational and home markets are one and the same. Wrong.

If anyone has a university age child, ask him or her what kind of computers he/she sees at his/her university, not only computers owned by students but what computers are in the computer center, administrative offices, departments, faculty offices. I'll bet the answer is not, "Compaq." Putting Apple aside due to its OS, I bet the prominent names will be Dell, IBM, and **maybe** an occasional Gateway. When it comes to higher education today, Dell is crown prince and IBM, the queen's mother [just there, no complaints, people like]. The real techie types use Dells and even the purely word processing/e-mail types of students get the mind-set that Dell is great, great product [because everyone who really knows about computers says they are] and fantastic 3 year warranties, even on refurbished models [for which CPQ offers 90 days]. What do these same students buy or recommend for purchase when they graduate and move on to business, industry (or whatever)? Dell.

To own or use a Dell at many U.S. colleges and universities today is making a statement, similar to kids who had to have a pair of Air Jordan shoes. A Compaq, in particular a Compaq Presario? That's like wearing a pair of sneakers purchased at K-Mart. Out-of-it Mom and Dad might have one in their den, attached to a scanner, but hey, what do they know about cutting-edge, state of the art, great warranty products? What do they care about being cool? After all, they bought it at Circuit City.

Where I am, IBM dominates the clusters [rooms where anyone can use the computers] because IBM gives these PCs to the university. Offices upstairs in the computer center, where individuals can determine exactly what kind of computer they want? It used to be Gateway but now Dell reigns. Individual departments? Well, I only go into a few, but in the ones I have been in, departments that used to be IBMlands (mostly due to IBM university grants) are now Dellvilles.

What do people [grad students and faculty] buy for home or when away doing research? Other than a few IBM notebooks, Dell reigns with Toshiba coming in second (right now). Some people are still using their old Gateways. Compaq? Ha! Forget it.

By overlooking the education market, basically pushing it to the side or lumping the educational with the home market, CPQ is doing itself, as well as us, its shareholders, a great disservice. The Presario line, especially the notebooks in this line, is ***not*** an appealing line for people [individuals or departments] in higher education. For desktops, the Prosignia is much better and for notebooks, one of the Prosignia models as well as a few of the Armada models are far better choices. From my experience, however, people at CPQ go out of their way (when I call) to tell me I should be looking at their Presario line, not one of the lines for medium or large businesses. At one point, I was even sent a catalog of products in the Presario line so I could see that what I really, really want is available in the Presario line. Well, despite my protests that sending me the catalog would be a waste of money, I finally agreed to take a look at it. It came, I looked at it, and the woman did waste CPQ's money by sending it to me.

During the annual meeting one woman stood and made comments about CPQ not having a share of the education market from things she had heard from her (college age) son. The respone she received did not lead me to think CPQ really understands the significance of what she was saying and was ready to take the steps to address this problem. One step would be hiring someone from Dell. Another would be to hire some social scientists for short term consultancies to research the problem. If CPQ pays to hear what many of us in higher education already know, maybe they will listen.

In closing, here's just one reason why I and my colleagues in the market for notebook computers right now will not buy Presario notebooks: they do not come with international warranties. It isn't merely businesses and large corporations than want notebooks that come with 3 year, international warranties. Most academics want this kind of warranty, too.

Lynn