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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (13197)	5/7/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: wmwmw	Respond to of 99985

Bond market may misinterpret economic numbers. Usually strong numbers imply high inflation possibility. But this is not the case now. As AG said, high productivity enables strong economy to come with low inflation. The link between strong economy and high inflation has been broken so far. We see bond and stocks go high at the same time, which means either stock market doesn't believe high rates, or even high rates come true it disregards it. I expect Dow to break out on the upside very soon.

To: donald sew who wrote (13197)	5/7/1999 3:18:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Don, the technical breakout in the june bond contract basically occurred yesterday. the fact that there is follow-through today on the heels of 'good news' is extremely bearish short term. regards, hb

To: donald sew who wrote (13197)	5/7/1999 3:28:00 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

<<What the heck is causing it to be so strong, with the good economic report today. The way the rates are moving, it could blow right up to 6.00% or more. >> I say it is because there are less and less buyers for the paper issued by the Tresury. They must jack the rates higher to attract buyers. Foreigners are basically load up with dollars!

To: donald sew who wrote (13197)	5/7/1999 4:16:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Sellers. But then where is the money going to? Money markets? Equity funds? Or completely out of the U.S. market altogether? I wonder how other stock markets around the globe are doing? Just some thoughts. Bob Graham

To: donald sew who wrote (13197)	5/7/1999 4:57:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald; The bond market is bigger than the stock market, and they WANT higher rates, they also want Spam to increase rates..right now they are scalping the spread, but they can twist on a dime, Big bond players are more sophisticated than stock players. They can force Spam to run rates up , and just might do it it's all tied into the ( short sell of currency ) and to much for me to try to explain. ------------------------- One thing for sure stocks won't take much more of a rate run up. ------------------ ODDS 60/40 The market is down Monday, Tahts not good enough for me to bet on as it's to much of a crap shoot. So I'm cash and not short. ( I got my odds thing going now ) I only want to make bets when I see 80/20 or better odds in my favor, ( no such thing as 100% ). BUT any way The best thing that could happen as far as my personal strategy is that the 40% wins on that 60/40, and we do a good strong GAP UP Monday, which I doubt but do hope for. AS if it's a strong gap up that will run the odds for shorting up to where that becomes a good bet. --------------- Any more I'm just a MO MO man, but I bet short when buying peaks , and go I long when selling peaks, There is no short term TA going as good as a 30 min Momentum chart. I never planed on being a day trader but the market has told me that's the only sense able way to play. While I may hold for several days the Mo Mo has to tell me to. Back to 60/40 , it's no good to bet on those odds, expenses and spreads will eat me alive if the odds are not better than that, & knowing when not to bet is my #1 priority. -------------------- In this market environment I'm faster to short than go long., but there is a handicap to shorting ( at least for me ) as they rarely lend me shares on a limit order, and I have to short at market. I can cover or buy with limits in, but shorting has a sort of surcharge built in. ( I can't place the order and let the price come to me but have to take what the bid as is on the fly ) and that can be tricky , ( it's not for newbies ) I run 3 and 4 windows and I don't hit confirm in the order window till it looks just right, in short I often cancel a lot of short orders before I bite. And last but not least I'm a very conservative player & I do not short STOCKS, only the indexes. Any sector spider, mdy, spy, dia , or qqq I'm after like a hawk on a sparrow. With good fast timing they are a cake walk. The ; "Mo Mo man" Jim P.S. I Guess you can tell I'm happy today, it takes guts to go long on a bounce in a market you know is in a down trend <G> and no I didn't stay long, & I was out before the others.