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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (12337)	5/7/1999 4:41:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 16960

Pat what are you trying to pull here? This is 3dfx we are talking about here, not nVidia. And let's face it, they have great technology and great vision, but when it comes to the nitty gritty day-to-day battle in the trenches, they stink. It's a good thing that they actually have the goods, or they would have been steam rolled over long ago. But what you are asking from them is like offering meat to a vegetarian. We could go on with all the would haves, could haves, and should haves. But I think part of being a TDFX holder is understanding that you are dancing with a talented performer who is just very stage shy. Now let's look at what we can expect from 3dfx over the next 3 years if everything goes right (which is a very big if). There is roughly 100 million PCs shipped every year, of which about 40% are to homes (which in my mind means entertainment machines). IF 3dfx manages to capture 15% of this market, they will have unit shipments of about 6 million and revenues of around $600 million. They should trade at 2~3 times revenue, so the market cap will be about $1.5 billion by 2002. In other words, you'll be tripling your investment in 3 years, which is excellent returns. Of course you will get an ulcer and perhaps some heart complications from they way 3dfx tries to fight the street, but hey...BTW, if 3dfx was to actually care about the investment community, then they could fetch as high a market cap of $2 billion in 2002, but I'm not holding my breath. Sun Tzu