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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (13227)	5/7/1999 9:05:00 PM
From: Jeffery Lakeshire	Respond to of 99985

Don, >>Those who are overly tied to materialism, and there are many - will have a very tough time adjusting when a bear market starts. Frankly, I would not be surprised if suicides rose, but that would of course be the exception. Also keep in mind that the baby boomers will be starting to retire in 10-15 years. Will they be able to reach their goals/regain their losses with a possible bear market occuring near their retirement. Most of the average investors I speak to now are planning their financial retirement goals on 15-25% gains year after year, with absolutely no calculation for a bear market. To make it worse, some are already spending it as if they have it now.<< I totally agree with this. This bull market has lived for so long, without a serious break, that the vast majority of investors feel that the possibility of an extended bear market is simply something that cannot ever happen again. Now there is the extreme claim of a so called "New Era", where supposedly inflation can continually remain LOW while the economy speeds ahead due to technilogical advances. Greenspan said just yesterday, "You can forget about a New Era. The same fundamentals apply". Jeff

To: donald sew who wrote (13227)	5/8/1999 2:08:00 PM
From: SBerglowe	Respond to of 99985

Thank you for the response. I certainly can relate to a lot of what you are saying. I agree that many investors do not remember a bear market, and when I look at many charts which have taken off parabolically, it is easier to imagine the chart looking correct by correcting as opposed to moving higher ad infinitum. FWIW> I personally lost a lot of money between 87 and 89 as a follower of Prechter, Eliades and Favors. They were inclined to be bearish and their reasoning at the time made a lot of sense to me. However, following them was not healthy for my nest egg. I think that Prechter and Eliades reached their pinnacle of success as adviser and prognosticators in the 80's and never reached the same level of prominence thereafter. It will be interesting to see what the next few years will bring. Thanks again for elucidating your long term perspectives. Susan