To: freeus who wrote (26122 ) 5/9/1999 3:07:00 AM From: IQBAL LATIF Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 50167
For a definite trend this list enclosed here contains stocks with the largest short interest on NAZ and NYSE. I would think until 13 day EMA is not solidly taken out we don't have much of a case to go long. The covering will be solid if SOX 402 is taken out, and Comp 2555, we can easily see that above the levels of 13 days EMA of most of these stocks, we can see short covering rallies. Like INTC above 62 and LU above 59 or MSFT above 83. I would therefore think that we are until these stocks show a better TA would trade on the direction these stocks will indicate. If Money flow in these socks turn positive like LU is already showing and underlying broad index of leaders that is NDX turns above this 2145-55 for two consecutive close, I will certainly go into these stocks. However, I trade my levels and until I get them I am waiting for market to show me the trend...clearstation.com On internets a test of 600.something was not very convincing. I need to see a close above 628 area for a signal on AMZN AOL to develop, we had a nice decent close above my supports but the index remained kind of listless. For me 'leading stock momentum play' is the name of the game. I highlight on this thread winner takes it all, run the winners and cut the losers is my strategy. For me although the broad market is solidly showing good breath, I will like to see theleaders moving forward for a good move up... I have some concerns on Friday move.. 1- It was weakness in Gold prices that led to change of fortunes in the perception of the market. As you know that market looks at commodities very closely so Gold prices selling off like mad on back of UK decision to convert some of its Gold reserves into currency reserves hit the Gold hard. The market purely looking at commodities and especially Gold as an indicator had a positive spin to inflationary fears. However, I think leading indicators and new office construction, new residential, all point out to continued strength. PPI and CPI will set a stage, probably the crude prices will reflect in the numbers, we will see a sell off on numbers alone although the experts think that core rate will remain unchanged. I have explained it several times that I don't see any inflation however it is the market fear we need to consider when we trade on daily basis so for me although hourly earnings were benign it would be these anomalies that I expect from coming numbers that can take the market to 1292 level, where I think it would be safe to go long into stocks like QWEST EMC LU.. However, the distance is far the hurdles are many I would just look at the market on daily basis and react, I will ofcourse immediately react if these charts show me a change in pattern of trading on my leading stocks, this market is here because of Tech and cannot sustain a move only on back of DOW or RUT for me NDX needs to reverse so far the signal is not right, however the high short interest will make the contrarian in me ready for action.. 2- Look at the list of highest short interest if INTC MSFT DELL CSCO makes to the list. I will be looking at going long these stocks LU included and EMC not far below if the reversal is on the cards the short covering rallies can be killing in these stocks. Look at LU how deceiving on one hand it has highest short interest on the other highest or positive money flow alongwith EMC.. 3- A market with these stocks as highest shorts is market that has all the potential to melt up. Give me a break on SPM 1364 area, I will show you that Comp and NDX will react to it. They are lagging but no reason for that on earnings and valuation, I think anticipation of FOMC, the possibility of CPI PPI puncturing the party, which I think will be a great occasion to make money on down and upside. I would think that we will see heightened volatility and one needs to be fully prepared.. Go long above 2555-65 band on COM or even 2155.. and short below 1318… I wanted to comment on one other issue, I think Alert opinion on friendship between Saudi and Iran is important for Oil prices, the two are now joining hands and will impact OPEC, also a friendship and new alliances in ME will help forge a greater union between Gulf states and Iran, the policy of dual containment will now have to be redefined as Iran join hands with US Allies, may be good for the region however Iraq is diplomatically isolated, that will help some Oils in short term and OSX can go up to 90.. However I believe that overall all this is a stage for a bigger problem for Oil, the panic which has led Oi to this level will also ensure a lot of supplies from non-OPEC resources and eventually Oil has to settle at 12-14$.. Oil sold off last week but it will creep back up, the issue of commodity Gold with decision of UK broke Gold and that anomaly translated into lesser fears of inflation. However, as new week is around the corner we will see re-emphasis of strong economy, in such an environment any strength in CPI and PPI would prick the market albeit although I don't see any inflationary threats however short term traders have to take care of short-term perceptions. I will trade the volatility and wait for momentum to return to internets. I am invested with my core but this is short term trading and I will not like to loose a trip where I can justify a move on my strategic forecasting model. We will have this good news about Serbia cease fire, the interest rates cuts in Europe are kind of masked with this war in heart of Europe, once we get over this problem we will a positive impact on them Market. One needs to look at lot of correlation to determine short-term strategy. Long term is far easier, one can buy and hold for some one like us we need a lot of analysis that includes politics, economy and charts of indexes equities and bonds. Our final move is sum of all this total, last but not least we add to it the pit analysis and direction, we think that is how these markets need to be played, for me this model has helped I try my best to popularize it as I think this is the only way to make consistent money.. bi bi take care..