To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (44323 ) 5/7/1999 10:27:00 PM From: Gary Burton Read Replies (2) | Respond to
George--Here is what I see,OSX wise---From the Mar 1 low of 47ish, I now think we started the 5th Wave from the 60.52 low of Apr7 (note-this is a change from my prior count).... Such 5th wave is a terminal one in the entire sequence and appears to be taking the form of an upsloping wedge (triangle), a common pattern in wave 5....Such wedge should unfold in an A-B-C-D-E fashion, within which each of the ABCDE's evolve in a 3 wave fashion and are bounded by the converging upsloping triangle lines.... As I see it, we finished the A at 77.78 on Apr19, we finished the B at 67.29 on Apr27, we finished the C at 81.56 on May4 and we 'may' have finished the D at this morning's low of 74.53, although we might dip to say 73.50ish early next week to complete the D (jury is out on that)---After the bottom of D, we should then embark on the final 'E' up of this Wave 5 wedge, which ideally should extend a bit past 81.56, possibly as high as 85ish BUT anywhere near 81.56ish could do, as E waves frequently fall a bit short of the top uptrending line of the triangle before they stop and a sharp reaction down ensues, signalling the End of the wave 5 triangle sequence and hence the end of the entire 5 wave sequence from 47ish-----After the end of such 5 wave sequence, it would be quite normal for a 50-62% retrace of the entire move from 47-82(?)ish to occur. That would suggest that after the next interim peak, we could see the OSX retrace back to the 61-65 area--ie near the 60.52 bottom of Apr 7, after which we should then be sufficiently oversold to launch a very strong Wave 3 (to go significantly higher than the 81-85 area where I anticipate the current sequence will top out).-----I notice that there is now in place on the chart a material negative divergence in both the 10day RSI and MACD, so the indicators are also warning of a material trend change to the downside coming soon....Bottom line-traders should exit at or near the next interim peak past 81.56 and await a low in the 60's from which to reload big time to start the next Big Move up....My 2c fwiw
