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To: c.horn who wrote (5707)5/11/1999 7:58:00 PM
From: c.horn  Respond to of 5908
 
May 11, 1999 - Yesterday, the central banks of two major countries announced they would NOT be selling any gold. It is getting very little attention. See if you can find out who they were!

Tonight's Commentary

We're getting a lot of questions about gold and the markets and the reserve banks of certain countries. We have published for several months now, links to the Gold site comments and GATA suit filed for manipulation.(www.indocan.com) It seems that the British have opened themselves further to this suit. Announcing to sell 415 metric tons of gold over the next three or four years is ridiculous and clearly manipulative.

Who telegraphs their sell intentions, unless required to do so? They are not so required. Governments have dead money in gold and want to use it to lever into income somehow. I smell world financial crisis!

Many countries have leased out their gold or sold short in the market. They could get very offside if the gold price goes up just to $325 USD. The only reason someone who appears long a metal would not want it up is because they have sold short against the box!

"Gold mine production in 1998 was about 2,529 tons. Gold
demand was about 4,130 tons. That left a production
deficit of about 1,600 tons. Gold Fields Mineral
Service estimates that central banks sold about 450
tons last year."

The British selling 450 tons over a period of years is meaningless to the gold market as industrial demand is outpacing production by 1600 tons per year, each of the last three years running. They do want to cover their short position, as the GATA suit is real and will cost them in the long run.

Futures markets are fickle and swing wildly on small news. Something that big, which will unlikely actually happen, can make the market swing hard.

May 10, 1999 - Gold futures continued their sharp descent Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange amid fears world governments, which control about 25 percent of world supply, will begin a selling frenzy in coming months.

Gold tumbled 1.9 percent as market participants continued to react nervously to the United Kingdom's announcement last week that some 415 metric tons from its 715 metric-ton stockpile will be sold off in coming years as the government moves into better-yielding bond investments.

Britain's decision caused a measure of calm because officials made an announcement before taking action, but investors are worried other governments will begin dumping their reserves without notice in a bid to make the biggest profits before others join in.

Since 1990, central banks in the Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Argentina and Australia have sold some of their holdings all without prior warning. There are fears now that other European countries and the new European central bank will do the same. (AP)

May 8, 1999 – You'll all be glad to know that Indocan's gold is safely in the ground where it has been for billions of years. It's a good thing too, if we had it sitting in bullion form like some central banks we may be tempted to sell it off and purchase packages of interest bearing bonds.



To: c.horn who wrote (5707)5/11/1999 8:01:00 PM
From: c.horn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5908
 
Gold consolidates losses in NY, complex ends mixed
04:13 PM ET 5/11/99
NEW YORK, May 11 (Reuters) - Gold ended New York slightly
higher, interrupting the shakeout since Friday, but consolidation
is expected to dissolve into selling again as the cloud of
central bank disposals still darkens the outlook, dealers said.
"There was a little bit of bank dealer buying -- probably
some short covering," said William O'Neill, director of futures
research at Merrill Lynch. "But then as the day progressed the
market eased into a mixed trading range."
"The daily fundamentals weren't particularly supportive," he
continued. "The dollar was up, the equity markets are up and oil
is way down."
COMEX June gold settled at $278.80, up 40 cents per ounce
from Monday and up 70 cents from its traded low, but well below
its $280.40 morning high.
Spot bullion was quoted late at $277.90/8.40, compared to the
late London fix at $279.45 and the previous New York close at
$277.80/8.30.
News on Friday that the UK Treasury planned to auction off
415 tonnes of its 715-tonne gold reserve -- diversifying its
portfolio into assets denominated in dollars, euros and yen --
sent bullion prices into a two-day nosedive.
By chopping $12.60 per ounce off the spot price (as of
Monday's $277.10 low), the gold plummet reversed a one-month
rally which peaked at $289.70 on Thursday, creating howls from
newly-confident bulls and generating all sorts of theories about
Britain's motivations.
Analysts said the Treasury might have been trying to sell
before a bid for eventual membership in European monetary union,
in which case its flexibility to act might be restricted by the
European Central Bank (ECB).
Analysts also speculated that the five 25-tonne auctions to
start in July and run bimonthly until March, were scheduled to
beat any potential future sales by the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
Either way, by advertising the upcoming sale, opting for
transparency over quiet disposals may have ensured that market
gives the Bank of England a bad deal on the price, they said.
"The Bank of England is supposed to be operating in the best
interests of Great Britain, not the gold market or some other
gold speculator," said Henry Bingham, president of Van Eck
Institutional Advisors. "So if they are going to sell it, they
should get the best price they can for it."
"Maybe they could have gone to the Bank of China and they
would have been glad to swap 400 tones of gold for whatever the
equivalent is of U.S. Treasury bills," he said.
Other precious metals were quiet. July silver fell 1.5 cents
to $5.415 per ounce, trading in a $5.38 to $5.48 range. Spot
bullion fetched $5.39/41, compared to the $5.3825 fix and
Monday's New York's close at $5.40/42.
"Given what's happened in gold, silver certainly is holding
in very well," O'Neill said. "Coin and jewelry demand is pretty
good for silver. The big thing about silver is it is not
threatened with all these potential official sales, whether it be
from the UK or the ECB or the Swiss National Bank or the IMF."
NYMEX July platinum ended at $355.10 per ounce, up 50 cents.
June palladium rose $4.00 per ounce to $333.00.
((--Alden Bentley, New York Commodity desk, 212 859 1641
alden.bentley@reuters.com))