To: Charles Broderick who wrote (3298 ) 5/8/1999 4:08:00 AM From: Bert Zed Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6180
Hi Guys, I have been ferretting around trying to put some meat on these rumours and that is all they are until contract news hits the wires. I agree that the most recent press release is optimistic in its outlook, and most of us are pretty adept at applying a discount to allow for the myriad of unforseen problems that could stop the shares hitting $400 !! The only information that I have been able to root out is that the potential contract is with a customer who is absolutely desperate for the boxes. The order is rumoured to be substantial. I could not ascertain the size but was enigmatically told that a few more orders of that magnitude would exhaust the productive capacity of 25,000 units a week. My opinion, and it is only my opinion, is that many potential customers who have been shipped beta production samples have already signed or were about to sign contracts with other STB suppliers. Many, having seen the MSU box are frantically trying to switch horses mid (slip!)stream. Not for altruistic reasons obviously. Take the example of a company who has decided to give away set top boxes at $250 a throw at the rate of say 50,000 a month, hoping to recoup the giveaway from future revenue. Imagine at the last minute a beta sample pops through the letterbox that costs $150 and is functionally better. It just may just transform your business model................. The above is all just hearsay and supposition. Remember Fridays price action, this sucker can go up and down, probably quicker than a whores drawers. As for price targets, I used to aim on $5, then $10 but with the latest news I have now upped that to $20. But if there is a modicum of truth in the rumours/scuttlebutt floating around, that target could be achieved very quickly. Probably not quickly enough for me to be able to afford to race a Le Mans on 12/13 June................ Look at this chart, looking good, although some pessimistic bastos will disagree with me no doubt.timely.com bertrand