To: Maurice Winn who wrote (29479 ) 5/9/1999 3:05:00 AM From: SteveG Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
from 5/7/99 CSFB wireless commentary: Wireless Data Takes Another Step Forward: We believe wireless data has become an investable theme as the number of announcements, trial initiatives and commercial implementations multiply. In reviewing this week's news it is apparent that these are global initiatives being pursued. With the Internet becoming a pervasive part of our life, it is clear that the need to have it mobile is near. In just five years, we have seen voice mobility move from a luxury service to a common place, consumer item. Last year, the mobile phone market was the largest of all consumer items numbering more than 160 million units. We believe wireless data and the need for a mobile Internet will duplicate this in wireless data devices in just a short number of years. As we can see from the announcements of the past few months, the infrastructure to enable connectivity over wireless networks is being planned and will be invested in soon. We site just a few of the examples from this week and expect many more announcements to follow: First 3G Network Opens 2001: NTT DoCoMo, the world's largest cellular operator selected Ericsson, to deliver both W-CDMA mobile phones and base station systems. This represents an early breakthrough in third generation (3G) mobile communications. Ericsson is leading the development of 3G and W-CDMA and there are firm plans to deploy services based on 3G technologies in Japan by 2001. Quickly on the heels of this announcement, Nokia announced that it has also received a nod from NTT to deliver 3G enabled terminals for the launch of this network. Given the interest in Japan for consumer gadgets, the Internet and communications, we believe this is a market worth watching as we enter the wireless data era. Europeans Demand 3G Soon: Ericsson and Vodafone announced agreements for extensive collaboration between the two companies to develop and evaluate 3G (third generation) wireless technologies that will introduce to users the benefits of mobile multimedia communications. The companies have announced plans to expand their trials in the U.K. to include additional base station installations and applications. With data rates of 384 Kbps, we expect the evolution toward 3G technologies will make wireless data a reality. Microsoft Jumps On the Wagon: Microsoft announced that it will join the Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) Forum, which is the consortium focused on creating a global wireless protocol specification that will work across different wireless network technologies. WAP was introduced in 1997 and is supported by the three largest wireless suppliers, Ericsson, Nokia and Motorola. We expect WAP to be an integral part of the evolution of wireless terminals to become Internet friendly and believe that Microsoft's announcement further heightens the opportunity represented by wireless data. We believe that over the next year, wireless data will rapidly evolve from a concept to commercial reality. Pent up demand for wireless data in Europe and the U.S. is tremendous. Beginning late in 1999 and early 2000, many of the existing networks will become data friendly as the second generation of data services are introduced. Until now, wireless networks have been limited to speeds of 9.6 Kbps primarily facilitating SMS (short message service). With the introduction of GPRS (general packet radio service and HDR (high data rate) on the GSM, TDMA and CDMA networks data rates are likely to move to more than 10 time current speeds. In our opinion, these data rates, to be made available in so called 2.5 generation wireless networks, will facilitate the development of a wireless Internet market that can be as exciting as that of the current Internet environment today. We recommend investors play this opportunity through the large infrastructure suppliers Ericsson, Nokia, Lucent Motorola and Nortel, all of which will provide their respective customers with hardware and software to facilitate these new services. In addition, we believe an attractive device market will emerge that will include the likes of Ericsson and Nokia initially as GPRS kicks off late this year in Europe. YTD Announced Wireless Infrastructure Equipment Volumes: Company Technology Customer Country Value (mil.) Nokia GSM 1800 Equipment Ben Nederland Netherlands $100 Nokia GSM 900 & 1800 Equipment Henan PTA China 280 Nokia TETRA Equipment Dolphin Telecom SA France 130 Nokia HSCSD Equipment TeleNor Mobil Norway ND Nokia SDH Equip. (SYNFONET) Tele2 Europe Scandanavia ND Nokia EKSOS Equipment Racal Telecom U.K. 20 Nokia Call-processing/backoffice apps Crys-Tel Communications Canada ND Nokia Fixed Network Equipment BITel GmbH Germany ND Nokia GSM 900 Equipment Globe Telecom Philippines 60 Nokia Switching/Transmission Equip. Drillisch AG Germany ND Nokia ADSL Access Solutions Telia Sweden ND Nokia GSM 900 Equipment Pannon GSM Tavkozlesi Hungary 56 Nokia GSM Network Equipment KG Telecom Taiwan 100 Nokia GPRS Technology KG Telecom Taiwan ND Nokia GSM 900 Equipment Taiyuan Telecommunications China 50 Nokia GSM Network Equipment Polkomtel SA Poland 80 Nokia GSM Network Equipment China Unicom China 40 Nokia GSM Network Equipment MobileOne Singapore 30 Nokia GSM 1800 Equipment Amena Spain 117 Nokia DX 220 Saunalahden Finland ND Nokia WCDMA Equipment NTT DoCoMo Japan ND Nokia Mobile Radio Systems Network Procedatos Venezuela ND Nokia To Date Total $1,063 Nortel GSM Network Equipment Telecel Africa $24 Nortel LAN Network Florida Power & Light US 6 Nortel Long Distance Network FirstCom Corporation Peru ND Nortel IP Optimized Opitical Backbone Apex Global US ND Nortel Advanced International Switching Star Telecom US 30 Nortel DMS-TXTX Super Node-Digital Switching CommNet Cellular US 35 Nortel DMS System Upgrade Bahamas Telephone Bahamas 13 Nortel Optical Network Northest Optic Network US 20 Nortel Network Equipment Williams Equipment US 300 Nortel GSM Network Equipment One 2 One U.K. 54 Nortel GSM 900 Network Equipment Mobistar Belgium 30 Nortel Wireless Network Equipment Axtel SA Mexico 400 Nortel CVX 1800 Earthlink US ND Nortel Cable Telephony Systems Telecommunications Inc. US ND Nortel Voice Switching Equipment Power Tel Ltd. Australia 31 Nortel DMS-100 US West US 40 Nortel CDMA Network Equipment AirTouch USA 500 Nortel GSM Network Equipment Personal Communications Network USA 12 Nortel GSM 900 Equipment Esat Digifone Ireland 45 Nortel GSM 1800 Equipment Digital Phone Group Bangkok 96 Nortel Wireless Network Equipment Splitrock Services USA 15 Nortel Fibre Optic Equipment Bell Canada Canada 65 Nortel Wireless Network Equipment Century Telephone USA 120 Nortel OEM Equipment Hewlett Packard USA ND Nortel GSM 1800 Equipment PTK Centertel Poland 20 Nortel Broadband Wireless Services Milenio Redes Spain 100 Nortel GSM 900 Equipment African Wireless South Africa ND Nortel Wireless Network Equipment Milenio Redes Madrid 101 Nortel Wireless Access/sub-technology equip Bell Atlantic USA 1,000 Nortel Optical Network CapRock Communications USA 40 Nortel CDMA Network Equipment Alamosa PCS LLC USA 82 Nortel GSM Network Equipment China Unicom China 60 Nortel GSM Wireless Equipment Guangdong US 30 Nortel Fiber Optic Network NTL, Inc. UK 400 Nortel To Date Total $3,669 Qualcomm Omnitracs satellite terminals Transit Group Inc. USA ND Qualcomm Omnitracs satellite terminals Symbol Technologies USA $14 Qualcomm To Date Total $14 Cummulative To Date Total $11,789 (ND = not disclosed) also see the following for "Telecom Upcoming Events Calendar" Message 9416290