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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Lacelle who wrote (7459)	5/9/1999 9:02:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17770

Facing Impeachment, Cornered Yeltsin Prepares to Strike Back MOSCOW, May. 09, 1999 -- (Agence France Presse) Russia's unpredictable and often erratic President Boris Yeltsin this week faces an impeachment vote which observers fear may end in political confrontation and financial doom. A cornered Yeltsin has always struck back at his foes and analysts say he is likely to do so again when parliament picks up the five-count hearing on Thursday. The Kremlin, however, needs the Communist-controlled parliament now more than ever as a heavy stack of key tax legislation rests at its doorstep. Russia's economic future depends on those bills since the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other lenders refuse to stretch a last-chance lifeline to Moscow until reforms finally come into law. Now even the most sober Kremlin watchers are warning that Russia has entered yet another spell of uncertainty that in the worst-case scenario could turn the nation into a financial pariah and see Soviet-era nationalists running the show. "A constitutionally empowered president with Mr. Yeltsin's record for doing the unexpected, and who feels as cornered and as isolated as does Mr. Yeltsin currently, is a highly volatile variable," the MFK Renaissance investment firm cautioned in a recent note. "All omens portend a fairly serious escalation in political uncertainty." Impeachment would deliver a deep personal wound to Yeltsin. It would rid the president and his family of political immunity and close his chapter in the history books on a humiliating note. Relations here have already turned so testy that Yeltsin at times refuses to shake Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov's hand. "No matter what the outcome of impeachment things will be far worse after the vote then they already are," said Yevgeny Volk of the Heritage Foundation research institute. "We are staring at government paralysis." Parliament has been plotting impeachment for years but had previously stalled from fear that a furious Yeltsin would dissolve the chamber in revenge. But impeachment plays well with frustrated voters who last week gave Yeltsin a two-percent approval rating. Parliamentary elections, meanwhile, are only seven months away. One count -- Yeltsin's decision to launch the disastrous 1994-1996 Chechen war -- has a fair chance at collecting enough votes to send the entire procedure to the courts and later the upper chamber of parliament. "Impeachment rests on only a few votes," Volk said. "Right now it is too close to call." Powerful lawmaker Alexander Shokhin has already predicted that Yeltsin will fire Primakov's government on Thursday evening. "Of course Yeltsin wants to get rid of Primakov and he will," said political analyst Andrei Piontkovsky. "It is just a question of time." By firing Primakov -- or by axing Communists from his cabinet to make the premier resign on his own -- Yeltsin would start a chain-reaction that could quickly lead to a shut-down of parliament. Deputies have rallied around Primakov and his leftist economic aides. Almost any other candidate for the post would fail to win confirmation. The constitution in that case allows Yeltsin to call for new elections. A Russia without a confirmed government or parliament and headed by a visibly ailing and sometimes rambling president is an unpleasant prospect to most. Analysts further point to sever anti-western sentiments here blown up by NATO strikes against Yugoslavia which could lead to nationalists and Communist sympathizers storming into power at the next elections. The fate of any IMF-sponsored legislation would then likely be doomed for good. This gloomy scenario however may yet be averted if Primakov uses his best diplomatic skills on his Communist supporters in a bid to avert an impeachment showdown. "Success by the government at managing to cut a compromise which is acceptable both to (parliament) and to the IMF would provide powerful evidence that perhaps, after all, the Primakov road to economic recovery is more than a pipe-dream," MFK Renaissance said. ( (c) 1999 Agence France Presse) russiatoday.com