To: DOUG H who wrote (15919 ) 5/8/1999 4:50:00 PM From: sam Read Replies (2) | Respond to
Will cable make internet via phone lines (and the upcoming DSL explosion) obsolete before it even begins? lol Reminds me a couple years back when Larry Ellison was gonna network computers (dumb boxes??) and put the PC biz out of business...or when Windows NT was gonna put Sun's server biz out of business...or when Intel's networking biz was gonna shut 3COM down...or when CSCO's new product line was gonna put ASND out of business...or when the internet was gonna put AOL out of business. Just ain't gonna happen. We are very, very early in the game. And there's lots and lots of opportunity available. Cable will be huge. DSL will be huge (just ask any Aware investor). That said, it must be remembered that investors in AOL are not ONLY investing in 18 million current members and the almost unlimited potential to leverage those eyes in an untapped, revolutionary new concept called "e-commerce." They are also investing in a management team that is smart, savvy and focused. Case, Pittman and company have been working on the next generation AOL for several years now. A lot will be happening between now and next year -- you can be assured about that. Businesses desperately WANT AOL's eyeballs. And cable isn't necessary AT ALL for AOL to continue growing earnings 100% per year. That said, I fully expect AOL to be a player in the cable arena. That is why I feel that those who believe AOL can go to 80 (let alone 40) are truly gambling with their money. But to each his own. TA is almost useless in trying to discern where AOL is going because of the news that WILL be propelling the stock. Plus, those hoping that AOL will "hiccup" on earnings... Well, truth be told, the Street is quite lenient towards AOL. The numbers to "beat" are not very tough. Now if the FED DOES raise rates (which I'd be shocked to see -- in the present non-inflationary environment), then AOL could reach 40 or lower. But in that event, ALL stocks will take a beating the likes of which we haven't seen in a long, long time.
