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To: brk who wrote (813)5/11/1999 1:08:00 PM
From: GrokSoup  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15615
 
> I am really naive on how short interest effects stock movement. Is
> it good to have a excessive short interest in a stock? Does this
> lead to a short squeeze and drive price up or does it mean that a
> sell off is near? Any explanation would be greatly appreciated.

Sorry for the long delay, but the answer is that "it depends." A large short position is usually a bearish signal. It means people think there is a good chance of a price decline. But there are exceptions. As someone else has said, it could also mean that some sort of arbitrage is taking place.

A large short position in an illiquid stock usually a recipe for a short squeeze -- unless the shorts genuinely know something. In this case it appears the short position is a long-short artbitrage, so it may be less material.

In general, when looking at short positions you want to look at the following things:

DTC: the number of days it would take to cover the current short position at current trading volumes.

% change: How much the short position has changed since the last reporting period. Big changes up or down can be bearish, or bullish, respectively

% float: A measure, again, of the likelihood a short squeeze. If a significant percentage of the float is sold short then that says shorts are taking a big bet against the company. Why? Because it will be hard for them to obtain shares to cover their positions without driving the stock higher.

Hope this helps.

P.
groksoup.com