To: gc who wrote (15929 ) 5/8/1999 5:28:00 PM From: Jenne Respond to of 41369
Key indicators will determine if markets can maintain momentum NEW YORK (CNNfn) - The economy takes center stage on Wall Street next week, with several key indicators scheduled for release as corporate earnings begin to move out of the spotlight. Non-farm productivity and import/export figures will be unveiled on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, followed by the all-important consumer and producer price indexes on Thursday and Friday. Economists surveyed by Reuters are forecasting the April producer price index will climb 0.4 percent while the core rate, a key weathervane of inflation, is expected to rise 0.1 percent. Overall consumer prices are expected to climb 0.4 percent with economists predicting a 0.2 percent increase for the core rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors. Business inventories, industrial production, retail sales and real earnings will also be disclosed next week. The economic data follow apprehensive comments by Alan Greenspan late this week. The Federal Reserve Chairman sent a mild case of the jitters through the market Thursday after expressing fears that record low joblessness could cause a rise in prices. But the Dow Jones industrial average recovered Friday to finish the week on an upbeat note. The blue chip index rose 78 points to 11,025, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 31 to close at 2,503. Inflation fears downplayed Analysts are downplaying Greenspan's comments and contend inflation fears are unlikely to play a role on Wall Street next week. "The market has way overplayed concern over inflation," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist for A.G. Edwards. "Greenspan did what he is supposed to do. When things look great, he has to look like he has an upset stomach. When things look bad, he has to be all smiles." Todd Eberhard, stock strategist for Eberhard Investment Associates, agrees. "There is no increase in real inflation that will affect the market," he said. Goldman believes psychology is much more likely to dominate the market. "The number one factor next week will be the market's own internal dynamic," Goldman said. "In other words, how much more momentum does the market have after going up 1,000 points in one month?" Earnings leftovers Although earnings season is largely over, profit reports from some big retailers could play a role in stock markets in the coming days. Wal-Mart (WMT), May Department (MAY), Federated Department (FD), Kmart (KM) and Nordstrom (NOBE) are set to post quarterly results, as are Gap (GPS) and Intimate Brands (IBI). Analysts expect most of the reports to be in line with, or above estimates. "We believe the earnings will be quite good, and that the result will give a boost to retail stocks," Kurt Barnard, retail analyst and president of Barnard's Retail Trend Report, said. "Everything has been favorable for retailers in terms of abundant consumer spending." Barnard believes its unlikely interest rates will go up and predicts the retail sector will remain robust through the fourth quarter. Cisco in tech spotlight Outside the retail sector, Cisco Systems (CSCO) will be closely watched. The communications equipment giant, which posts its results after the closing bell Tuesday, is expected to report a profit of 37 cents per share for the third quarter. "Cisco has an excellent track record of meeting analysts' expectations… and the probability of them missing the estimate is low," said Everen Securities technology analyst Christin Armacost. Cisco's results are likely to have an effect on other companies in the technology sector. An upbeat report from Cisco could send shares of traditional corporate networking firms, such as 3Com Corp. (COMS) and Cabletron Systems Inc. (CS), higher if it reveals strong growth trends in the networking market, says Armacost. But shares of Ascend Communications (ASND) and Newbridge Networks Corp. (NN) may react negatively if the quarterly results indicate that Cisco is beating back competitors in the business service provider area, adds Armacost. In other earnings news, industry heavyweight BP Amoco (BPA) will disclose first quarter results. The company is expected to post a 43 cent profit on Tuesday. -- by staff writer Nicole Jacoby