Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill F. who wrote (39759)	5/9/1999 10:57:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

don't have to hope, Bill... I was just commenting that the "risk index" chart over at decision pt (based on share prices, interest rates, and eanrings) has now turned vertical and is soaring STRAIGHT up... doesn't mean anything cause it has been rising for a while.. but it is beginning to look a little silly now.... decisionpoint.com

To: Bill F. who wrote (39759)	5/9/1999 11:39:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

bill, we're VERY close... HO HO HO remember my yen/bond yield level that we discussed on fri... it will usher in the END, I promise you. tfc-charts.w2d.com tfc-charts.w2d.com we didn't quite close below the key level on Fri, but I feel we will one day this week, definitely. Likely on Monday as this press release below says to me.. the Japanese are preparing to let the yen float free against the dollar and stop holding it down.... this way they can APPEAR just as "shocked" as everyone else when our stock and bond mkts and dollar all melt down together. Sunday May 9, 3:03 am Eastern Time FOCUS-Japan's Sakakibara turns sanguine on US By Tatsuo Ito TOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - Japan's top financial diplomat Eisuke Sakakibara has changed his views on the U.S. stock market and economy, predicting that high-flying U.S. share prices can be sustained over the next six to 12 months. ''Six months ago we thought the U.S. stock market would fall, but it has been unexpectedly strong,'' he said on a Television Asahi interview programme on Sunday. ''The strength will continue for the next six to 12 months. I think the U.S. stock market is unlikely to fall much from the current levels,'' said Sakakibara, who is Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs. Wall Street's Dow Jones Industrial Average is at a record high, some 2,000 points higher than six months ago when Sakakibara had said that there were signs of a bubble forming. Sakakibara said that the Brazilian currency crisis and the collapse of U.S. hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) last fall clouded the prospect of growth in the U.S. economy. But he said the situation has improved due to appropriate policy steps such as cuts in the key overnight rate between September and November. Since then, U.S. economic growth has taken off and reached an annualised six percent growth rate in the fourth quarter of 1998 and an estimated annualised 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 1999. ''You can be optimistic about the U.S. economy compared with six months ago,'' Sakakibara said. He also quoted Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan as saying at the meeting of Group of Seven (G7) nations in April in Washington that Wall Street has benefited from technology innovation in telecommunications. Sakakibara added that even if the U.S. economy falters, the United States has various policy options on the back of its fiscal surplus, including tax cuts and further reductions in U.S. interest rates. He said Asian economic and currency crisis that broke out in July 1997 was mostly over, with share prices in the region returning to pre-crisis levels. Except for Indonesia, Asian nations could achieve growth in 1999 with South Korea likely to post two percent growth, he said. For Japan's economy, public fund injections worth about 7.5 trillion yen ($62.5 billion) into 15 major banks at the end of March has ended the nation's financial crisis and boosted the Tokyo stock market, Sakakibara said. ''The financial markets are clearly signalling that Japan's crisis is over,'' he added. Economic Planning Agency chief Taichi Sakaiya said on an NHK television programme on Sunday that the Japanese economy has an 80 percent chance of growing this year. He said the economy is heading in a good direction due to various steps taken by the government since last year, but employment remains a key issue for the economy. He said the nation's jobless rate, which hit a record high of 4.8 percent in March, is highly likely to climb further as a result of corporate restructuring.